2017年12月18日

テレサ・メイのBrexitの朝食会の輝かしい成果 イギリスの首相は貿易の話し合いで十分な成果を得た。今、より厳しい交渉が始まるだろう。

Theresa May’s Brexit breakfast breakthrough
The British prime minister has done enough to move on to trade talks. Now the harder bargaining will begin
Dec 8th 2017

テレサ・メイのBrexitの朝食会の輝かしい成果
イギリスの首相は貿易の話し合いで十分な成果を得た。今、より厳しい交渉が始まるだろう。



TALK about the last minute. Theresa May had originally hoped to agree on a deal at a lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, on December 4th, but it fell apart when the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), whose support the prime minister needs for her parliamentary majority, objected to the provisions for avoiding a border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. 

fell apart:失敗に終わる
Democratic Unionist Party:民主統一党  イギリス・北アイルランドの保守政党。北アイルランドの連合王国("the United Kingdom"=イギリス)帰属維持を主張する「ユニオニスト」諸党のなかでは最右派・強硬派とされる。

She was then told she must reach agreement by the weekend if next week’s European Union summit was to agree that sufficient progress had been made in the first phase of the Brexit divorce negotiations to start talks on the future relationship. After frantic late-night bargaining, a bleary-eyed Mrs May duly flew back to Brussels in the small hours of December 8th so that she and Mr Juncker could declare that a deal had indeed been struck. 

frantic:必死の
bleary:(疲れて)〈目が〉かすんだ
duly:定刻通りに, 予定の時間[期日]に.
struck:〈取引〉をする strike a bargain [deal] with  と取引する.

The agreement took the form of a 15-page “joint report” covering all three principal divorce issues. In each case, Mrs May has given ground to the EU, which may come to annoy the most hardline Brexiteers. On the rights of EU citizens in Britain, for example, she has accepted that they can be overseen by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for as long as eight years after Brexit. On the financial settlement, or exit bill, she has conceded that Britain will meet its terms in full, implying a total payment that will amount to some €40-45 billion ($47-53 billion), albeit spread over many years. 

give ground:譲歩する
annoy:いらいらさせる
overseen:監視する

The most contentious issue was, however, the Irish border. Mrs May has long promised that there would be no reversion to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But she also insists on leaving the EU’s single market and its customs union. That has made both Brussels and, more importantly, the Irish government sceptical that she could honour her promise on the border. Her first attempt at resolving this was to guarantee that Northern Ireland would keep in “regulatory alignment” with the EU. 

contentious:議論を呼ぶ
reversion:逆戻り
honour:履行する
alignment:提携

But the DUP objected that this might mean Northern Ireland being treated differently from the rest of the United Kingdom, and could even lead to there being a border in the Irish Sea instead. Hence the new formulation that Mrs May has accepted, which is to promise that even if there is no agreed trade deal, the UK as a whole will “maintain full alignment” with all relevant rules of the single market. 

This formula, along with the rest of the joint report, was hailed in both Brussels and Dublin. The DUP said it still had reservations. Yet it had no real alternative but to accept the new terms: continued intransigence could have led either to a Brexit with no deal at all or the collapse of Mrs May’s government and the arrival in power of Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn. For the DUP, either would have been a catastrophe. 

intransigence :妥協しないこと

Yet the real worry for Mrs May may now be within her own party. Brexiteers have accepted all the concessions she has made thus far because they are set on the ultimate goal of leaving the EU in March 2019. But as they consider the terms of the joint report, they may jib at the implicit promise that Britain will maintain close regulatory alignment with many of the single market’s rules even after leaving the club. That seems inconsistent with their dream of tearing up all Brussels regulations and opening the way to free-trade deals with lots of third countries. In future talks this contradiction could come to haunt Mrs May. 

jib:〈帆〉を[が])くるりと回す[回る].
haunt:苦しめる

Despite all the tributes Mrs May has won this week, her troubles may thus have only just begun. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said that more clarity was needed on what trade deal Britain wanted to secure. He added that, if breaking up was hard, breaking up and building a new relationship was much harder. The clock is ticking towards March 29th 2019, when Brexit is due to happen. It will be tough agreeing to a legally watertight, time-limited transition to a new trading relationship. 

tributes:賛辞, 尊敬[称賛, 感謝]のしるし, 贈り物 
watertight:〈計画・状況・主張などが〉水も漏らさぬ, つけ入る隙(すき)のない.

Furthermore, few experts think that a new trade deal can be wrapped up (and ratified) within two years. And when it comes to the trade deal itself, the EU will say that, if Britain insists on leaving the single market and customs union and retaining the option of regulatory divergence, it can only have a deal similar to Canada’s, which covers most goods but barely any services. 

divergence:不一致

Throughout the negotiations, the EU has consistently been several steps ahead of Britain. Whereas the British cabinet has not even discussed the future relationship, Brussels has already prepared its position and is now issuing its negotiating guidelines. 

Indeed, Mrs May’s notion of Brexit red lines was always misconceived. Just as the EU sets the terms when countries apply to join the club, it also has the upper hand when a country decides to leave. Tory Brexiteers have had to swallow a big exit bill, a role for the ECJ, and a promise of some regulatory alignment—all in exchange for a trade deal that may end up little better than Canada’s. They could yet be vindicated. But some may surely start to wonder what Brexit is really for. 

misconceived:誤解した, 見当違いの〈考え・もくろみなど〉.
upper hand:優勢
vindicate one's decision:自らの決定の正当性を証明する.

イギリスがEUとBrexitの交渉を始めた。テレサ・メイ首相はBrexitしたあともイギリスに居るEUの人たちは8年間、EUの司法裁判所管轄でいいという条件と離脱の違約金$47-53 billionを支払うという条件を飲んで、単一市場に残れるような交渉を開始した。しかしながら、その単一市場の交渉もカナダよりいい条件かどうかは疑わしい。モノについては単一市場の扱いになっても、はたしてサービス部門もそうなるかどうかは今後の交渉だ。果たしてBrexitが良かったのかどうか疑わしくなってきた。

月曜日。今日は朝会がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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