2018 Annual Forecast　(16)

2018年の予測 (16)

North African Nationalism
The Egyptian government will be keeping a close eye on popular opinion next year as well. The country will hold a presidential election in May. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will carefully manage the vote, leaving Egyptians with little choice in their actual selections. But more important will be the headcount at campaign events, social media activity and voter turnout — all of which will reveal some details about voters' opinions of Egypt's economic and security strategies. Any popular frustration with the government in Cairo will be channeled through opposition candidates, such as lawyer Khaled Ali. Subsidy cuts approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and scheduled for 2018 will deal a heavy blow to Egypt's lower- and middle-class citizens, but Cairo will try to mitigate the political fallout at home by handing out cash.

Buoyed by IMF loans, Egypt will exercise greater independence in its relationships abroad. (The more financially solvent the country is, the less reliance it has on foreign backers.) To that end, Cairo will balance its ties with the United States and Russia while holding Saudi Arabia at arm's length. Though Egypt is no friend to Iran, it isn't fond of kowtowing to Saudi Arabia's demands, either. Cairo will likewise find itself distanced from Ankara next year as Turkey lends support to the Palestinian cause — chipping away at Egypt's own credentials as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Egypt will try to account for Turkey's actions, and to better manage its problems with Sinai militancy, by courting deeper ties with Hamas, the Palestinian group tasked with managing the Gaza Strip. Cairo will also assist in Washington's efforts to negotiate a new peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians. 

Buoyed：を励ます, 元気づける(up).
solvent：(負債などの)支払い能力のある.
at arm's length：一定の距離をおいて, 近づけないで
chipping away：〈考え･感情･制度など〉を少しずつ弱める, なし崩しにする
credentials：人物[能力, 信用]の証明となるもの, 実績, 資格
account：Depression accounts for the current high unemployment. 現在の失業率の高さは不況によるものである
courting：They have successfully courted support in America. 彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.

Next door, momentum will build behind an effort to hold elections in Libya. But although the latest U.N.-backed initiative is gaining support, the many factions taking part in peace talks are unlikely to hash out their differences next year. Nevertheless, a shared form of nationalism has arisen among the most powerful groups in Libya's east and west — including Libyan National Army Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, who is gradually garnering the approval of the international community. A national conference in Tunis intended to catalyze the electoral process will showcase the common ground emerging in Libya in 2018. Even so, few parties will be convinced that the U.N. talks will meet their demands, ensuring that the strongest among them, such as Hifter, will continue to act in their own interest as negotiations unfold. 

hash out ：〔合意を得るために〕詳細に議論する
garnering：〈情報･支持など〉を集める; 〈称賛など〉を得る.
unfold：〈折りたたんだ物〉を広げる, 開く

The Jihadist Wars 
The Islamic State may have suffered a sound defeat in Iraq and Syria, but the war against the world's extremist groups is far from over. Al Qaeda will attempt to exploit the collapse of the Islamic State's so-called caliphate to polish its own reputation as the leader of the global jihadist movement and to propagate its vision of "the long struggle." The group's recruitment efforts will aim to attract current and potential Islamic State followers in 2018. 

sound：〈言動･考え･根拠などが〉(合理的で)確かな, 適切な, 正しい, 正当性のある, 信頼できる
propagate ：〈動植物など〉を繁殖[増殖]させる

Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State will seek out weak states where they can establish new strongholds or expand old positions, focusing on Yemen, Libya and the Sinai Peninsula. The ungoverned spaces of the Sahel, Afghanistan and Somalia may prove tempting for them as well. Meanwhile, al Qaeda will dig into its bases in conflicts throughout the Middle East — including Syria, where a schism between al Qaeda and an offshoot, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has jeopardized the organization's cohesion. As the battle for the hearts and minds of potential recruits around the world persists, so will the threat of homegrown militants inspired by the competing extremist ideologies urging them to carry out attacks. 

schism：(宗派･政治組織などの)分裂.
cohesion：団結
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham：an active Salafist jihadist militant group involved in the Syrian Civil War.The group was formed on 28 January 2017 as a merger between Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement.

エジプトは今年選挙があるので、国民の意見を気にしている。また、アメリカとロシアには友好関係を保っているが、サウジとかトルコとは距離をおいている。パレスチナの和平にはアメリカに協力して、努力している。リビアはまとまろうとしているが、へフタル将軍が一番影響力がありそうだ。ISISの崩壊がはっきりしてきたので、アルカイダとその他の組織との抗争がまだまだ続きそうだ。アルカイダは地保を固めようとするだろう。また、こうした過激派は弱い国を探して、そっちの方に触手を伸ばしていくだろう。

水曜日。ではまた明日。

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