2018年01月03日

2018年の予測 (2)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (2)

2018年の予測 (2)

Global Trends
In today's world, nations are becoming increasingly interconnected by air, land, sea and cyberspace. As globalization has knitted countries and continents closer together, the borders of the map and the barriers of geography have been rendered, in some ways, obsolete. Now events in one region can more easily have consequences in another, at times even rippling across the globe. We explore those with the greatest impact on international decision-making during the forecast period below.

rendered:The law would be rendered useless [ineffective].その法律は無用[無効]になるだろう
consequences:(主に悪い)結果, 結末, 成り行き, 影響 
rippling:〈感情・反応・衝撃などが〉 ≪…を≫ 波紋のように広がる, 伝播(でんぱ)する 
explore:〈問題・可能性など〉を探究する, 検討する, 探る

Read Synopsis 
Because the United States is the only actor with the ability to tip the scales of several geopolitical scenarios in either direction, any forecast of the year ahead must start with Washington.(NASA/Newsmakers)

Synopsis:梗概, 概要, 大意.

Section Highlights
The United States will reluctantly adopt a policy of containment toward North Korea when Pyongyang achieves a viable nuclear deterrent, likely in 2018.
An emerging coalition between China and Russia will increasingly challenge U.S. hegemony, although alliances will remain fluid worldwide.
Working within and beyond the bounds of the World Trade Organization, the United States will pursue an aggressive trade agenda against China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan.
As the global oil market recovers, Saudi Arabia will bear the burden of keeping production cuts in place as other oil producers renege on their agreed-upon quotas. The Saudis will look to Russia to help forestall an uptick in U.S. shale output.

fluid:〔状況などが〕流動的な、変わりやすい、不安定な
bounds:境界(線); 境界内, 領域
renege:【約束・合意などを】破棄する, 反故(ほご)にする
forestall:を阻止[予防]する(stop, prevent).

Geopolitics Is Back With a Vengeance
Countries across the globe will kick off the new year with a bit of good news. A decade after financial crisis shook the world to its core, growth in the global gross domestic product has finally begun to pick back up. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that the global economy will grow more than 3.5 percent in 2018 — the fastest pace seen in eight years. 

with Vengeance :猛烈に; 激しく; 極度に; まさしく

But many of the deep structural problems that the financial crisis exposed have endured, signaling a more fragile recovery ahead than the cyclical rebounds of the past. Moreover, a number of geopolitical risks — looming conflict on the Korean Peninsula, threats of a global trade war, stark battle lines drawn in the Middle East, and anxiety over Chinese and Italian debt, to name a few — could cut the economy's comeback short. As U.S. national security adviser H.R. McMaster said recently, "Geopolitics are back, and back with a vengeance after this holiday from history we took in the post-Cold War period." 

to name a few:2〜3例を挙げると
His musical career was cut short by his illness.:彼の音楽家としてのキャリアが病気のためにだめになった.

By themselves, these threats will influence how governments and corporations adapt to a tenser international environment in 2018. However, the worst-case outcome of each risk isn't necessarily the most likely. And because the United States is the only actor with the ability to tip the scales of several scenarios in either direction, any forecast of the year ahead must start with Washington. 

necessarily:A lower price does not necessarily mean [imply] a better buy. 安価な物が必ずしも買い得だとはいえない
tip:〈物〉をひっくり返す, 倒す(over, up).

By now the world has had a year to observe the presidency of Donald Trump. While there are some aspects of his term that are unique, and therefore more fleeting in their effects, many of Trump's actions stem from deeper forces that will last well beyond his time in office. With regard to the former, a handful of institutional checks on the executive branch made headlines throughout 2017. Congress worked to tie the president's hands in lifting sanctions against Russia. (Lawmakers may likewise try to block Trump from unilaterally withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2018.) 

unique:be in a unique position 格別の地位にある
fleeting:つかの間の, はかない; ちらっと[ちょっと, さっと]した〈動作など〉; さっと通りすぎる〈人・物〉

The national security establishment has angled to preserve U.S. commitments to NATO while clearly defining the risks attached to instigating war with North Korea or abandoning a nuclear deal with Iran. Figures at the state, corporate and local levels have openly defied Trump's attempts to withdraw from the Paris climate change accord and to reduce state support for alternative and renewable energy sources. 

angled:遠回しに求める, それとなく得ようとする
instigating:(公式に)〈計画など〉を開始する, …に着手する.
defied:〈法律・規則・権威など〉に従わない, 公然と反抗する; …を無視する, ものともしない

But Trump also doesn't consider himself beholden to the Republican Party or his national security advisers, and he has shown less hesitation than most American presidents to dismiss dissenters or appoint loyalists who adhere to his agenda. Thus, Trump has a wider margin in which to operate than many of his predecessors, which not only will raise the risk of rifts widening within the Republican Party in an election year but will also keep U.S. allies and adversaries on their toes as they try to distinguish between the rhetoric and reality coming from the White House.

beholden:恩義をうけて, 借りがあって 
rifts:仲たがい, 不和
keep the audience on its toes:〔スリル満点のショーなどで〕観客をくぎ付けにする

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea More Information
Trump's most consequential decision in 2018 will be how to deal with North Korea's rapidly developing nuclear arsenal. The window for a U.S. preventive strike aimed at devastating Pyongyang's program is closing fast. Though a preventive strike can't be ruled out, its steep price tag — a messy war that shoves the world back into economic recession — will make the United States more likely to resign itself to the uncomfortable reality of North Korea's possession of a viable nuclear deterrent. 

ruled out:〈可能性など〉を除外[排除]する.
messy:厄介な
shoves :David shoved the chair back under the desk. デイビッドは机の下にいすを押し込んで戻した.
resign:I had to resign myself to the fact that she was gone forever. 彼女は二度と戻ってこないという事実を受け入れざるをえなかった.

This acceptance will mark the start of a new and unstable era of nuclear deterrence as the United States and its Asian allies adopt a policy of containment toward the Hermit Kingdom. The gradual degradation of arms-control agreements struck in the 20th century will only further complicate matters as Russia and China try to balance against the United States' expanding missile defense network.

Hermit Kingdom:隠者王国◆1636〜1876年頃の朝鮮につけられた名前

North Korean Nuclear Tests
In fact, lately Russia and China have found more reason to cooperate than compete with each other. Both countries are working to insulate themselves from U.S. pressure and reduce Washington's influence in strategic theaters around the globe. To that end, they have hashed out a division of labor of sorts: Where both states share interests, Russia addresses security issues as it deems fit while China takes the lead on economic matters. Moscow and Beijing also have deepened their cooperation in finance, trade, energy, cybersecurity and defense. 

insulate:電線などを絶縁する
to that end:その目的[目標]で[に向かって・に向けて・を達成するために]
fit:(大きさ・形が)〈人・物〉にぴったり合う, 適合する

North Korean Nuclear Tests

Though this emerging partnership poses a strategic threat to the United States, it will also provide ample opportunity for exploitation as Washington tries to bolster its allies in Russia and China's neighborhood. (Taiwan, in particular, could become a source of contention between Washington and Beijing next year.) Still, today's international environment does not resemble the Cold War, when bolder lines defined alliances and great powers engaged in zero-sum contests. Economic interdependence, mutual distrust and unreliable security guarantees will encourage ostensible allies to hedge against one another for their own protection. Such fluid relationships will come to define the global order in 2018 and beyond. 

ample :十分すぎるほどの, 豊富な
contention:論争, 議論, 口論; 争い, 競争
ostensible:表向きの, 建前の, 表面上の〈理由・目的など〉.

An Unrelenting U.S. Trade Agenda
The threat of North Korea will not spare China, South Korea or Japan from the United States' ire in the trade realm. The Trump administration is unique in its willingness to compartmentalize the North Korean crisis and its trade agenda. In keeping with the White House's decision to target countries with which the United States has large trade deficits, China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan will remain in Washington's crosshairs in 2018. (As the Trump administration quickly discovered, Germany is not easy to isolate from the rest of the European Union, which protects it somewhat from the White House's punitive trade measures.)

Unrelenting:情け容赦のない, 手加減しない; 断固とした.
spare:難を逃れる, 被害を受けない ≪from≫ 
ire:憤怒, 怒り(anger).
compartmentalize:を区画[区分]する.


世界はますます、国境を乗り越えて、相互に関連していく。アメリカは北朝鮮の問題があり、どうするか迷っている。攻撃してしまうとそのコストは甚大だからだ。また、アメリカは中国、日本、ドイツなどの貿易バランスを是正しようとしている。NAFTAも同様だ。トランプの無茶な政策は議会がそれを阻止するので、それなりに動いてくだろう。アメリカと中国との安全保障における課題は今年は台湾が焦点になるかもしれない。冷戦ほどではないが、各国はアメリカとの関係を冷静に見ていくだろう。

水曜日。正月3日。今日で正月は終わりかな。今日は海野塾があり、新年会がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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