2018年01月03日

2018年の予測 (3)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (3)

2018年の予測 (3)

U.S. Trade Balances: Top 10 Partners, 2016


U.S. Trade Balances: Top 10 Partners, 2016
Should negotiations reach an impasse, the United States is more likely to abandon its trade deal with South Korea than other agreements on the table. The ties that bind the U.S. economy to South Korea's are weaker than those linking it to countries like Mexico. And though Trump could choose to pull out of NAFTA next year, the bloc's proponents — including U.S. lawmakers who will weigh the risks of withdrawal as they head into midterm elections — will try to legally block moves by the president to keep the trade pact from falling apart. By and large, the role of the U.S. Congress in regulating foreign commerce and legal disputes will continue to curb executive action in trade in the year ahead. 

impasse:袋小路; 行き詰まり, 難局(deadlock)
proponents:支持者; 提案者, 発議者.

The separation of national security and trade may be unique to the Trump administration, but protectionism and a willingness to flout the rulings of the World Trade Organization (WTO) existed in Washington well before Trump arrived at the White House. The United States has long held the opinion that the WTO is ill-equipped to hold China accountable for the free trade violations that its particular brand of state capitalism perpetrates. Although the European Union and Japan share the United States' desire for stricter enforcement of WTO regulations, Washington will not bank on the slim chance that the unwieldy trade body will push reforms through its ponderous, consensus-based bureaucracy. 

flout:(故意に)〈法・規則など〉を無視する; 〈権威・慣習など〉に従わない.
ill-equipped:必要な設備[技能]を持っていない
perpetrates:〈過失・罪など〉を行う, 犯す(commit) 
bank on:当てにする
unwieldy:〈組織などが〉(大きすぎるなどとして)非効率的な.
ponderous:(重たい物の動きが)のっそりとした, のろい(awkward).

With China squarely in its sights, Washington will slap Beijing with punitive measures on trade, investment and intellectual property enforcement that it can argue are within or outside of the WTO's jurisdiction, depending which designation best suits its needs. The United States already has dusted off two important trade tools at its disposal: A Section 301 investigation of intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, and a Section 232 investigation into whether imports of Chinese steel hurt U.S. national security and are thus subject to tariffs. (A review of the first case is due in August, and a review of the second case is due in January, at which point the president will have 90 days to act on it.) 

squarely:はっきりと
jurisdiction:権限の範囲; 管轄区域
designation:指定、指名、指示
dusted off:〈昔使っていた物〉を再び使い始める; 〈古い考え・方法など〉を使い回す.

Washington also will keep lobbying the European Union to withhold market-economy status from China in the WTO — a label Beijing claims the organization promised it in 2016 that would make it more difficult to impose anti-dumping measures against China. Though a verdict for the legal challenge on this matter won't come until 2019, a WTO panel will review the case in 2018.

label:標識 ラベル ブランド
verdict:評決

The Trump administration's trademark bluntness and unilateral pursuit of its trade agenda will continue to raise alarm worldwide, leaving the impression that the White House is intent on dismantling the WTO and razing the global trade order that it has underpinned since the end of World War II. But such concern is likely unwarranted. Though the United States will be more willing to act independently outside the bounds of the WTO, it will not incur the economic risk of withdrawing from the bloc. Instead Washington will rely on it as an enforcement body, even as it compensates for the institution's weaknesses with measures of its own.

bluntness:遠慮会釈もない物言い, ぶしつけな態度.
dismantling:(徐々に)〈制度・組織など〉を廃止する, 解体する.
razing:〈町・建物が〉完全に破壊された.
underpinned:支える
unwarranted:根拠のない
bounds :限界, 制限範囲, 際限(limit)
incur:(自分のせいで)〈損害・出費・非難など〉を招く, 
compensates:【不利な状況・不足などを】埋め合わせる, 補う

Despite the escalation, the White House will stop short of triggering a trade war. While U.S. trade partners will watch its moves with apprehension, they will respond mildly for the most part. Some, like Japan, will try to deflect Washington's advances by highlighting their strategic relationship with and investments into the United States. Others that come into the White House's direct line of fire will challenge its trade attacks at the WTO and in U.S. courts, where litigation could outlast Trump's current term. As for China, some punitive U.S. trade measures will even neatly intersect with Beijing's domestic reforms and will not pose an existential threat to the Chinese economy. 

stop short of:〜の寸前[手前]で止まる[やめる]、〜するまでには至らない
deflect:かわす
advances:侵攻
line of fire:攻撃を受けやすい位置
litigation:訴訟
outlast:よりも長く持つ
intersect:〈道・川などが〉〈場所〉を横切る, 区分する; …と交差する

アメリカは貿易不均衡に対してWTOの措置が生ぬるいとして、自ら、中国に対して制裁措置に乗り出している。こうしたアメリカの態度は一概に悪いとはいえない。WTOは巨大すぎて、アクションも鈍く、適切な対応が取られていない。アメリカは301条項とか232条項のような古い規約を持ち出して中国を制裁しようとしている。日本はかつてこうしたことに対してはアメリカに投資をして工場を作って来た経緯がある。また他の国はWTOとかアメリカの裁判所に提訴している。

A Crude Recovery More Information
Barring a major shock to the global economy, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers hope to meet their goal of rebalancing the oil market in 2018. As the world's inventories continue to decline in the first half of the year, political divisions in Iraq and capacity constraints in Libya and Nigeria will mitigate the risk of oil producers extending their agreement to limit output into 2019. Signatories will hold a critical meeting to review their progress in June. 

Barring:を除いては がなければ


Oil Production Cuts Offset by Production Increases

Oil Production Cuts Offset by Production Increases
The biggest question next year is how well Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will see the pact through to its conclusion. They will try to shoulder the bulk of the burden of maintaining production cuts as compliance starts to slip among other members eager to exit the agreement. And as its expiration draws near, U.S. shale production will likely ramp up amid higher oil prices. Determined not to incentivize a strong recovery in U.S. shale output, Saudi Arabia and Russia may continue to collaborate in energy long after the current quotas have ended. For instance, Saudi Arabia can use Russian assistance to diversify its energy sector while working with Moscow to restrict production.

compliance: 【規則・要請などに】従う[応じる]こと, 承諾; (企業などにおける)法令遵守
slip:slip from the government's grasp 政府の支配を免れる
draws:draw near [close, (まれ)nigh]〈人・車・出来事などが〉近づく
incentivize:を奨励する.

But this cooperation in energy will do little to defuse the competition intensifying in the Middle East. The Trump administration's vow to prevent Iran from following in North Korea's footsteps will bring Tehran and the fate of its nuclear deal with the West back into the spotlight. Saudi Arabia and Israel, keen to roll back Iranian influence while they have the blessing of the White House, will revitalize their campaign to weaken Iran and its allies, including Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. 

defuse:〈緊張など〉を和らげる, 静める.
roll back :を押し返す

Backed by Russia, Iran will have the resources to hold its ground as the war among regional proxies builds. But it will take care to avoid alienating Europe, which will be necessary in checking any effort by the United States to shred the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The European Union, along with China, Russia and India, won't fully comply with U.S. attempts to reintroduce sanctions against Iran's energy sector. But if the nuclear deal collapses, oil producers may abandon their production cuts early as Saudi Arabia and Russia move quickly to account for the loss of Iranian supplies on the market. 

shred:を切り刻む, ずたずたにする

Much of the urgency behind Saudi Arabia's reform agenda and preoccupation with the global oil market's recovery stems from a longer-term challenge that the kingdom and other oil producers face: the expansion of the electric vehicle market. Over the past year, Europe, China and India spearheaded policy initiatives that aimed to boost the adoption of alternative-energy vehicles. Industry reports, moreover, point to growing demand for such cars in the short and medium term. 

preoccupation:気がかりな状態

As demand rises, so, too, will demand for the vehicles' batteries and the lithium they are made of. Though this trend will take decades to unfold, investment in the production of electric cars and related technology will increase next year. Because lithium resources are concentrated among only a handful of countries, including Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, several producers will be well positioned to take advantage of mounting interest in lithium — especially Argentina, since the Common Market of the South, to which the country belongs, will liberalize its trade policies in 2018. 

石油はサウジとロシアが組んで、アメリカに対応して、減産して、値崩れを防いでいる。イランに対してアメリカが制裁を加えようとしているが、今までのEUと中国、日本が制裁解除の契約をしているので、イランの石油は持ち直しているが、制裁されれば、状況は変わってくる。石油市場は自動車産業の消費がその大きな需要だが、近年、電気自動車にシフトしているので、今後の需要が懸念されている。そして、電池の原料のリチウムが脚光を浴びてきていてい、アルゼンチンがその最大の利益享受国になるだろう。


木曜日。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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