2018年01月06日

2018年の予測 (5)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (5)

2018年の予測 (5)


China in Transition More Information
If the unlikely possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula comes to pass, it would have a devastating effect on the political and economic stability that China has worked for the past three decades to preserve. But beyond the potential crisis brewing next door, China has no shortage of internal challenges to address as it enters a new political and economic era. In many ways, Chinese President Xi Jinping's consolidation of power over the past five years is the result of the country's transformation over the past 30 years as the ruling Communist Party has struggled to weather the profound domestic and international challenges it faces. As Xi starts his second term, maintaining his unrivaled authority will be imperative, particularly as a critical period of China's ongoing restructuring begins. 

preserve:維持する
have no shortage of:〜には不自由しない
consolidation:強化する[される]こと; 強固.
weather:〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける
profound:〈影響などが〉深刻な, 重大な
imperative:絶対必要で, 必須で; 緊急で

Xi's newly amassed power will help him marshal the resources and forces he needs to advance his vision for China. This future calls for the substantial redistribution of wealth; greater socio-economic equality; a stronger Party, state and military apparatus; and the projection of power to match the country's rising influence worldwide. Each of these goals is difficult to implement and is made up of many equally daunting objectives that require the ability to push tough reforms through many different interest groups. However, the close coordination of policy within a robust Party and state structure will remove some of the obstacles ahead of Xi, paving the way for the more challenging and politically sensitive reforms as he deems necessary.

amassed:(長時間かけて)〈財産・情報など〉を貯める, 蓄える(accumulate); …を集める.
marshal:〈支持・力など〉を集める, 結集する; …を組織化する
daunting :〈仕事・見通しなどが〉(人を)ひるませるような, 気をくじく.

Xi's tight grip on power will also create high expectations, though, leaving him little room to guard against policy inefficiencies or failures. Here the Communist Party's ability to keep demonstrating its commitment to identifying and punishing the misdeeds of government officials and institutions is key. The Party will establish an anti-corruption supervisory body, the National Supervision Commission, in March. 

misdeeds:悪行, 不正行為; 犯罪.

The new organization will lend additional momentum, enforcement and oversight to the campaign against graft that has underpinned Xi's political agenda and ability to sideline opponents. But it may also fuel concerns about the abuse of power, particularly at the local level. As Beijing feels more compelled to defend its authority, it will rely on political and ideological conformity, the control of the media or the suppression of dissidents to enforce its official line, risking backlash in the process. 

lend:与える
sideline:(重要なポストから)はずす
conformity:【社会通念・体制・慣習などへの】順応, 従順, 服従

Next year Xi's agenda will center on the challenging socio-economic issues plaguing China. The economy's growth is slowing, compounding the country's substantial regional and social inequality, distorted financial systems and severe environmental degradation. After several years of gradual progress, the Communist Party will look to speed the pace of reform ahead — testing its ability to shore up legitimacy as the economy loses steam. 

compounding:〈良くない物・事が〉〈問題・困難な状況など〉をさらに複雑にする, さらに悪化させる
substantial:(数量・規模などが)かなりの, 相当な; (満足できる程)十分な; (実際に)重大な, 価値のある
distorted:ゆがめる
severe:深刻な; 〈症状が〉重い; 〈天候・天災などが〉厳しい, ひどい
shore up:補強する
lose steam:〈計画・活動などが〉勢いをなくす.

With an eye toward the redistribution of wealth, Xi will accelerate fiscal reforms in 2018, channeling more money to underdeveloped regions and bolstering the financial base of local governments. At the same time, China will keep taking steps to improve social welfare as reforms to land policies and the hukou system of household registration take shape. 

take shape:〔アイデア・夢などが〕形になる、具体化する

Despite its eagerness to push ahead with its plans, Beijing will proceed with some caution to make sure that the rapid rate of reform doesn't endanger social stability. To that end, fiscal proposals will focus on issues that aren't politically sensitive, such as the implementation of environmental taxes, an uptick in resource taxation and the reduction of taxes for small businesses and individuals. Though China may also take steps toward imposing a property tax, the country's highly leveraged real estate market could delay any attempts to enact the measure nationwide. Nevertheless, the public's expectations of the government's efficacy will ramp up alongside its effort to contain soaring property prices, especially in large cities.

leveraged:〈企業など〉に借入金で投資する.
efficacy:効能, 効力, 効き目, 有効性(effectiveness)
ramp up:〈生産など〉を増やす.
alongside:と同時に

China's Cooling Property Prices

China's Cooling Property Prices
China likewise will keep in place production cuts in heavy industries like coal and steel while trying to deleverage those sectors. At the same time, it will more closely enforce environmental regulations. But it will do so only to the extent that these efforts don't seriously disrupt employment and stability, particularly when it comes to shutting down the country's struggling zombie corporations, or state-owned enterprises operating at a loss. Beijing's attempt to tackle inefficiency in the heavy industries may put upward pressure on the prices of commodities like coal and steel, offsetting slowing investment. If commodity prices rise, the government would have more leeway with the public to hasten its campaign. 

keep ~ in place:〜を所定位置に保持する、〜を適切に維持する
leverage :影響力, 支配力
put upward pressure on the price of:〜の価格[値段]を押し上げる[に上昇圧力をかける]
leeway:自由(裁量), 余地 ≪to do≫ ; (時間・空間・金などの)余裕

Ensuring financial stability will be at the top of Xi's economic agenda. China's mountain of debt will grow steadily higher over the next four years, climbing from 251 percent of the country's GDP today to as much as 320 percent by 2022. However, throughout 2017, Beijing worked to reduce the country's most dangerous debt burdens and pre-empt the risks posed by the rest. It also offered debt-for-equity swaps and private capital to state-owned enterprises, reinforced oversight mechanisms, closed legal loopholes on shadow lending and tightened real estate regulations in major metropolises. 

pre-empt:回避する
by the rest:rest of world
debt-for-equity swap:債務対株式の交換、債務の株式化
shadow lending:シャドーバンキングは、「影の銀行」とも呼ばれ、通常の銀行ではなく、投資銀行(証券会社)やヘッジファンド、証券化のための特殊な運用会社などの金融業態の総称をいう。 ... 一般にシャドーバンキングは、免許制などで金融当局から厳しく監督される通常の銀行と比べて規制が緩く、金融当局も実態をよく把握しきれていない。
metropolises:(国・州・地域の)主要都市, 大都市; 首都.

The Growing Mountain of Chinese Debt

The Growing Mountain of Chinese Debt
China will feel the benefits of these measures in 2018, but they won't guarantee the country a stable financial future. The new year will bring new sources of strain as high maturity rates are applied to overlapping corporate and local debts for the next three years. At the same time, the creation of credit and the Chinese real estate market appear likely to stall. Stress in the real estate sector, which will account for half of China's corporate debt maturity in 2018, could in turn carry substantial risks: Not only would a meltdown in the market trigger a series of corporate defaults, but it would also put considerable pressure on the country's financial system. 

strain:緊張
maturity:支払期日

China has the fiscal and regulatory tools to avoid this scenario, at least on a national scale. However, a localized debt crisis or collapse in the real estate market cannot be ruled out, especially in the vulnerable and heavily indebted areas of the northeastern rust belt, central provinces and heavy industries such as construction, utilities and steel. At best, a contained catastrophe would detract from China's ability to maintain its economic growth and pursue difficult reforms; at worst, it could result in local corporate defaults, bankruptcies and even popular discontent. 

ruled out:無視する、除外する、排除する
detract:〈価値・名声など〉を落とす, 損なう
discontent:不満

いま習近平は国内の改革が山ほどある。特に累積債務をどうするかが大きな課題で、下手をするとそうした債務のある企業が不動作への過大投資と相まって、返済不能になり、デフォールトを起こしてしまうかもしれない。そうなると社会不安を起こしてしまう。この3年間に多くの企業が債務の返済期限を迎える。この債務の背景にはシャドーバンキングによる政府の監視の目をくぐった債務がある。これらの債務をどう対処するかが今後の大きな課題である。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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