2018年01月06日

2018年の予測 (6)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (6)

2018年の予測 (6)

Globalization, Evolved More Information
As China seeks to address its economic problems at home, several factors beyond its borders will help determine its success. Assuming war does not break out on the Korean Peninsula, China will find much-needed buyers for its exports in the steady economies of Europe and the United States. This relief will be particularly well-timed, considering China's investments in fixed assets — a cornerstone of its economy — will continue to slow next year. 

relief:安堵(あんど)(感), 安心
well-timed:好機を捉えた、時宜を得た

On a less positive note, 2018 will bring the real possibility of heightened tension with the United States in trade as the White House more strictly enforces regulations. China will be one of its primary targets, which — along with the protectionism spreading worldwide — could put pressure on the Chinese economy. Over the past year, U.S. trade measures against China have been largely confined to anti-dumping action; next year they will likely be broader. Even so, both powers will manage their dispute enough to prevent it from escalating into a full-blown trade war. 

full-blown:本格的な, 全面的な〈問題など〉

The United States has erected trade, investment and intellectual property barriers against China for quite some time. However, Trump has wielded these tools more aggressively than many of his predecessors. Combined with his administration's skepticism of multilateral trade mechanisms and determination to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, this approach has encouraged the White House to forgo the use of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to settle trade disputes where possible. 

erected:〈障壁など〉を設ける.
for quite some time:かなり長期間[長い間]、結構前から
forgo:を差し控える, 遠慮する.

The United States used this year to lay the groundwork for a two-pronged offensive against China. First, it opened an investigation into Chinese intellectual property practices under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Second, it began to scrutinize national security concerns related to the steel industry under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Both of these developments will come to a head in the next 12 to 18 months. On matters covered by the rules of the WTO, the United States will challenge China's intellectual property practices through the organization. More often, however, it will target Beijing's behavior beyond the WTO's bounds. 

lay the groundwork:土台[基礎]を作る[築く]、下地を作る、下準備をする、根回しをする
two-pronged:二又の
bounds:境界(線); 境界内, 領域

The White House may focus on the sectors it explicitly mentioned in its trade strategy, including heavy industries like steel, automotive and some electronics. Washington will also enter into negotiations with Beijing to persuade it to ease certain trade and investment barriers. Meanwhile, the United States could pursue additional action against Chinese steel and aluminum under the auspices of its national security review. Divisions within the Trump administration might limit the use of this option, though, especially as China keeps slashing production in both industries. 

auspices:支援

For its part, China will answer by bringing cases to the WTO in hopes of responding with measures sanctioned by the organization. But to hedge its bets, China will also build out its own intellectual property protections — safeguards it increasingly has use for as its companies pump out higher-value products. In addition, Beijing will use the promise of easing its technological transfer requirements or opening up its financial, services and renewable energy-fueled vehicle markets to dissuade Washington from applying more pressure to the Chinese economy. 

hedge one's bets:〔危険を分散させるために〕複数のものに賭ける 両面作戦をとる
dissuade:説得して…することを思いとどまらせる

Though Xi has vowed to open up China's markets before, foreign investors have been dissatisfied with the lack of progress during his first five-year term in office. The Chinese state's steady consolidation of economic power has only added to their frustration. That said, as Xi and the Party achieve the level of control they seek, they may resume many of their long-delayed reforms. To that end, Beijing will test the waters of market liberalization by creating more room for foreign investment in pilot regions like the Shanghai free trade zone. But China will proceed only insofar as these projects align with its overarching strategy, ensuring that they won't be drastic enough to deter punitive trade measures by the United States. 

He is right insofar as this issue is concerned.:この件に関する限り彼は正しい.
overarching :すべてに関わる, 包括的な; 非常に重要な.
ensuring:を確実にする, 保証する
deter:に思いとどまらせる, ためらわせる

In fact, under its Made in China 2025 initiative, China has dramatically expanded the role of the state in corporate investments into strategic sectors overseas, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, for the past three years. Such moves will keep causing concern in developed markets like the European Union and the United States as the competition heats up in high-end markets and accusations of unfair Chinese practices abound. Consequently, Western countries will keep a closer eye on Chinese investments into their high-tech industries. 

China's persistent quest for market-economy status within the WTO — against the wishes of the United States and the European Union — will be another source of friction. To make matters worse, Beijing has opened cases within the organization against both parties; a verdict on China's dispute with the European Union will likely appear by early 2019. Should the Continental bloc and the United States lose their cases, they probably will remain steadfast in their demands of China. Washington will be particularly reluctant to relent, perhaps forcing Beijing to return to the negotiating table. 

friction:摩擦
steadfast:不動の, 揺るがない, しっかりした
relent:態度を和らげる, 折れる.

Of course, China won't be the only country in the United States' crosshairs. Japan and South Korea have experienced similar pressure from their increasingly protectionist ally as the United States seeks to reduce its trade deficits with them. They, too, have tried to avoid drawing Washington's ire. Tokyo was somewhat successful on this front in 2017, and it will continue to fend off Washington's demands. Seoul, on the other hand, faces the lengthy process of renegotiating its free trade agreement with Washington. 

crosshairs:〔照準器の1本の〕照準線、十字線
ire:憤怒, 怒り(anger).
fend off :回避する かわす

During these talks, the United States will likely push for greater access to South Korea's automobile, electronics and agriculture sectors. At the extreme, Washington may even renounce the pact if it is not satisfied with the results of the talks. Though South Korea has little interest in jeopardizing its relationship with the United States amid the imminent threats emanating from North Korea, any disruption to their trade arrangement will strain the South Korean economy — giving countries like China an opportunity to exploit the rift widening between the two allies. 

renounce:を放棄する(give up)
emanating:生じる, 出る
strain:精神的緊張, 過労, ストレス
rift:仲たがい, 不和

The premium that Washington has placed on bilateral trade negotiations will only encourage other countries in the Asia-Pacific to seek out multilateral trade platforms that exclude the United States in order to advance their own agendas. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — a version of the shuttered Trans-Pacific Partnership that the United States does not belong to — still needs to reconcile its members' conflicting opinions and navigate issues surrounding state-owned enterprises, dispute resolution mechanisms and cultural exemptions. But as the deal gradually takes shape, potentially granting Japan a bigger role in setting regional trade policies, China may feel the need to fast-track its own proposal for an economic bloc: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. 

premium:〔特に政府・役所からの〕賞、賞金、賞品、賞与(金)、褒章金
shuttered:休業中の
exemptions:(義務・支払いなどの)免除, 免責.
fast-track:を迅速に処理する.

グローバリゼーションに進展において、やはり中国とアメリカとの葛藤は続く。特に、知財とか素材のダンピングばかりでなく、貿易の不均衡収支に対して、アメリカは中国を制裁しようとしている。もちろん中国だけで得なく、日本、韓国もそのターゲゲットとだ。アメリカはWTOをはずして、交渉している。そして、二国間協定を推進しようとしているので、TPPのような多国間協定を推進しようとしている国家にとってはそれぞれの国家が自国の国益を求めるいい機会になるかもしれない。中国はRCEPを早急に推進しようとしている。

日曜日。今日は母親の見舞いだ。では、また明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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