2018年01月07日

2018年の予測 (7)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (7)

2018年の予測 (7)

The New Silk Road 
As the United States has tried to scale down its commitments abroad, China has seized the chance to expand its own, in part because its ever-growing interests overseas demand a coherent global strategy. Beijing's sprawling Belt and Road Initiative is one means of extending its influence. Despite China's tendency in 2017 to regulate investments that it believes to be irrational — those in the entertainment, real estate and cultural sectors, to name a few — it will steadily funnel money into the Belt and Road Initiative. The government's strategy of helping Chinese firms climb the value chain will facilitate these financial flows. However, its attempts to ease domestic debt burdens may also undermine corporate finances, potentially cutting off funds to projects whose plans or locations carry added risk. 

coherent:首尾一貫した
sprawling:むやみ[不規則]に広がった.
irrational:感情・行為・考えが〉不合理な, 道理を逸した 無分別な
undermine:むしばむ

China's Belt and Road Initiative

China's Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative is closely intertwined with China's attempt to increase its global outreach as the international system evolves. In some ways, that evolution may help Beijing achieve its goals. Mounting U.S. pressure has brought Russia's interests into closer alignment with China's — in part because both countries share the desire to insulate themselves from U.S. sanctions. Their burgeoning partnership could increase China's access to Central Asia and the Middle East. In the meantime, as the United States adjusts its strategy in Afghanistan, putting further strain on its relationship with Pakistan, China may have an opportunity to cement politically sensitive projects along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as Islamabad turns to Beijing for closer security cooperation. 

evolves:(徐々に)発達する, 発展する
insulate:隔離する
burgeoning:〈人口・町などが〉急増する, 急成長の.

China's endeavors will not always go smoothly, though. When the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit convenes in China in June, Beijing will try to expand the bloc's agenda on economic and infrastructure initiatives. But the move will likely encounter resistance from India, which has opposed the Belt and Road Initiative as it has watched China's growing assertiveness in the region with trepidation. In fact, Beijing's ambitions will spur New Delhi to team up with China's regional rivals, including Japan, to advance competing infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia and Africa and to increase security cooperation. At the same time, political instability, regional groups, local insurgencies, funding problems and suspicions of China's motives will continue to endanger Beijing's connectivity schemes in Central and South Asia. 

endeavors:努力
trepidation:恐怖, おののき; ろうばい.
endanger:危険にさらす

Infrastructure in Southeast Asia

Infrastructure in Southeast Asia
Closer to home, China will keep relying on a combination of diplomatic pressure and military coercion to curb Taiwan's outreach to other countries, including the United States and its allies. Meanwhile, to the west, Beijing may have a rare opportunity to pursue a dialogue with Tibet's government in exile as the Dalai Lama ages. The path toward negotiation is all but certain, but talks would enable Beijing to limit New Delhi's ability to leverage the Tibet issue as the Sino-Indian rivalry and border dispute intensify. 

all but:殆ど

China's Neighbors Strike a Precarious Balance
Though North Korea's recent activities have drawn the United States' attention to the Asia-Pacific, Washington's engagement in the region will diminish in the long run. China's presence, however, will grow. As a result, countries in the region will try to both work with and counter Beijing, a balance that will come to define the Asia-Pacific in the years ahead. 

Precarious:不安定な
counter :とは逆に

This year, friction between Beijing and Seoul worsened over the deployment of U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense missile systems to South Korea, eventually triggering the imposition of economic countermeasures by China. Tension likewise marred China's relationship with Japan as the two sparred over the East China Sea throughout 2017. But toward the end of the year, Beijing's ties with its rivals warmed: China and South Korea normalized relations, while Japan hinted that it might participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative. 

imposition:課す[負わせる]こと
countermeasures:対抗[対応]手段, 対策
marred:を損なう, 台なしにする, 傷つける(spoil)
sparred :〘ボクシング〙 ≪…と≫ スパーリングする

Next year may even bring a trilateral summit for the three neighbors — a gathering that has been suspended since 2015 because of their quarrels. This hardly means their contest for regional dominance will subside. There is, however, room for the North Korean threat, mutual economic interests and the United States' drift away from its current alliances to erode their enmity for one another. 

subside:〈声・音・激情・悪天候などが〉徐々に静まる; ≪…に≫ 落ち着く
enmity:敵意

The easing of tension in Northeast Asia won't preclude the formation of coalitions intended to contain China. Chief among them is the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes Japan, India and Australia. As new formats evolve, the powers interested in curbing China's reach will try to settle their internal differences as their security cooperation deepens. Australia will serve as a key swing state because of its strong trade relationship with China and domestic controversy stemming from those ties. 

preclude:妨げる
Chief:主要な

By contrast, Japan and India will form a sturdy front against China. By no means does the bloc portend a formal security alliance — or even alignment — among members, but its loose agenda could appeal to countries with a mutual interest in containing Beijing, such as Singapore and Vietnam. China, for its part, will approach individual countries in an attempt to dilute the coalition coalescing against it. 

sturdy:不屈の, しっかりとした, 断固とした
portend:〈よくない状態・事態〉の前触れとなる; …を予告する.
dilute:弱める
coalescing:〈別々の物・考えなどが〉結合[合体]する

China will use a similar strategy to take advantage of the United States' distraction with North Korea. Beijing will redouble its efforts to reach out to claimants in the South China Sea, offering compromises that reflect its pre-eminent position in the disputed waterway. This year, China achieved several diplomatic victories with this tactic, including progress on drafting a nonbinding code of conduct in the South China Sea with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 

distraction:気を散らす[紛らす]物[こと]
redouble:いっそう努力する.
claimants:(権利・遺産などの)要求[請求]者
pre-eminent:ずば抜けて優れた, 卓越した
nonbinding:拘束力のない

Beijing will use next year's negotiations over the deal to showcase its success — and to discourage interference by external powers. Though U.S. operations in the contested waters will continue unabated, China will guard against the United States' attempts to encourage countries like Australia, Japan and India to increase their participation and responsibilities in the region. 

unabated:〈勢力・量などが〉衰えない.

中国は一帯一路の戦略を展開していく中で、韓国を抱き込み、日本も参加を促していく。中央アジアではロシアとも協調していく。一方アメリカはこのアジアでのビジネスから後退していくので、中国はそれに取って代わるチャンスと思っている。ただ、インドは領土問題もあり、中国とは相容れない。アメリカはアジアの安全保障に関してはオーストラリア、インド、日本の4カ国で、中国を囲い込んでいく。オーストラリアは中国との関係が良いので、少し、微妙だ。

月曜日。小野さんとの会食パーティがある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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