2018年01月09日

2018年の予測 (9)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (9)

2018年の予測 (9)


Americas
The Americas stretch from the Arctic Circle in Canada to the southern tip of Chile. This geographically, culturally and politically diverse region is home to the United States, a nation whose geography helped it become the foremost economic and military power in the world — an ascendance aided in part by bringing Mexico and Canada into its sphere of influence. Farther south, the nations of South America are like islands, separated by vast spaces of impenetrable mountains, rivers and jungles. Try though these countries may to integrate more closely, deeper ties such as those that characters North America will prove elusive.

ascendance:ascendancy 支配的[優勢]な立場、権勢
impenetrable:〈場所などが〉通り抜けられない impenetrable darkness 見通せない暗さ.
elusive:〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.

Section Highlights
In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will try to implement more of the protectionist trade agenda it unveiled in 2017. Though the possibility remains that the United States could unilaterally withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement, the deal's supporters would turn to Congress and the federal courts in that event to prevent NAFTA's demise.
Dissatisfaction with the political status quo will influence presidential races in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.

demise:終了

Brazil and Argentina, South America's two biggest economies, will take advantage of their pro-trade governments' remaining time in office to forge deeper trade ties with other economic blocs and countries. As the United States and its Latin American allies press for free elections in Venezuela under the threat of further sanctions, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's administration will resist any efforts to erode its authority while trying to mitigate the fallout from the country's rapid economic decline.

Pushing On With Protectionism
As U.S. President Donald Trump's administration enters its second year, it will continue to contend with the limits of presidential power to shape foreign trade, security relationships and domestic legislation. Trump wasn't as tethered to the Republican Party's policy desires or as subject to its influence as were many of his competitors for the party nomination. Having emerged as a candidate from outside the party's established political network, he had fewer direct connections to it. 

contend:We have to contend with violent crime. 我々は凶悪犯罪に対処していかねばならない
tethered:〈動物など〉をつなぐ

This relative freedom has given the president more leeway to entertain (and in some cases, enact) ideologically motivated policy changes that his predecessors found politically untenable, including a more protectionist trade agenda and more stringent immigration restrictions. Nevertheless, Trump doesn't rule in a vacuum, and many of the factors that will make or break his ability to keep campaign promises are beyond his control. The presidency will go through yet another year trying to align its policy wishes with reality. 

motivated:highly, motivated students やる気に満ちた生徒たち.
untenable:〈議論・考えなどが〉(批判などに対して)擁護[支持]できない
stringent:〈規則・規準などが〉厳しい, 〈法律・規制などが〉厳格な.
in a vacuum:孤立して、他と関わりを持たないで
align:を一直線にそろえる ≪with≫ .

Throughout 2018, the Trump administration will try to implement specific aspects of its protectionist trade agenda. Washington, for instance, will proceed with its investigation of alleged Chinese intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. The inquiry may lead the U.S. government to take retaliatory action against Beijing inside as well as outside the World Trade Organization trade regime. In addition, the White House may make a decision in the coming year about whether it will try to renegotiate the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), from which Trump has threatened to pull the United States. 

KORUS won't be the only trade agreement up for discussion, either. Early in 2018, the administration will decide whether to continue its talks with Mexico and Canada to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or to withdraw from the deal. The negotiations reached an impasse this year because Canadian and Mexican officials disapprove of U.S. proposals to raise national content requirements, tighten rules of origin and eliminate investor-state dispute-settlement mechanisms. Though the three sides could still overcome their differences, the odds that they will reach an agreement early in 2018 are looking slim. 

impasse:break the political impasse 政治的難局を打開する
content:the entire contents of the dictionary その辞書のすべての内容.
dispute settlement:紛争解決
slim:a slim chance [hope] of winning the game 試合に勝つわずかな可能性[希望].

南北アメリカはアメリカがもっとも関与してきた地域だが、アメリカはうまくまとめられなかったが、彼らはより結束しようとしている。トランプの保守主義は今年もNAFTAを変えようとしているが、止めるとなると、アメリカにも大きな支障が起こるだろう。ブラジルとアルゼンチンは積極的な自由貿易を展開する。ベネズエラのマデューロは依然としてしぶとく残るだろう。

トランプは中国に対しては知財とか情報移転に対して中国への制裁を引き続き検討し、韓国との貿易協定は交渉次第ではやめてしまうかもしれない。NAFTAも揉めるだろうが、簡単にやめることはでいない。ただ、三者の合意は年初には解決しない。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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