2018年01月10日

2018年の予測 (10)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (10)

2018年の予測 (10)

Trade Between NAFTA Members

Trade Between NAFTA Members

Trump will base his NAFTA decision on the advice of his Cabinet and on his own analysis of the potential risks and benefits of pulling out of the deal. Appeals from concerned Republican legislators and private-sector lobbyists could soften the administration's negotiating stance. A withdrawal, after all, would probably cause widespread disruptions in an array of important sectors in the U.S. economy. The risk of an electoral backlash in the states that most depend on NAFTA — and the economic damage that withdrawing from the agreement would wreak — could sway Trump to stay in the talks. 

Appeals:呼びかけ
concerned:心配する, 懸念する
wreak:〈損害など〉をもたらす

But the president is mercurial enough, and his core political base opposes NAFTA staunchly enough, that he could still decide to unilaterally back the United States out of the deal. In that event, NAFTA's proponents would try to use Congress and the federal court system to halt the withdrawal. The U.S. Congress could try to prevent an attempt to pull out of the deal by pressing, for instance, for a joint resolution to mandate congressional approval of such a move. 

mercurial :〈気分が〉変わりやすい.
staunchly:熱烈な, 頑強な.
back out of:【契約・約束などを】放棄する, 【事業などから】手を引く 
proponents:支持者

Legal challenges would also mount against an effort to withdraw from the trade area since leaving NAFTA would cause uncertainty for so many governments and businesses. The deal's demise could result in the loss of 200,000 jobs, mainly in Southern and Midwestern states — a grim prospect for the Republican Party, which will depend on support in those regions in the midterm congressional elections in late 2018. 

The likelihood of a unilateral attempt to pull out of NAFTA will rise, however, the longer the United States, Canada and Mexico negotiate without arriving at a consensus on the deal's future. With the U.S. midterm elections and the Mexican presidential race looming on the horizon, Trump will be eager to wrap up negotiations before the votes. Otherwise, the president may wind up dealing with a new Congress or a different administration in Mexico, either of which could scuttle a revised free trade agreement. 

the longer:長引くほど
scuttle:〈計画など〉を台なしにする, 水の泡にする.

Beyond NAFTA, the approaching midterms could interfere with other parts of the U.S. administration's agenda in 2018. As Congress wraps up major legislative projects such as tax reform and gears up for campaign season, the general unity that prevailed in the Republican Party throughout this year will come under strain. Some Republican lawmakers, especially those whose seats are less secure, will begin distancing themselves from the administration's more politically risky policy proposals, and legislative endeavors that require bipartisan support — such as Trump's infrastructure funding plan — will struggle to gain traction. Similarly, controversial proposals, such as a comprehensive attempt to revise immigration laws, could stall out in Congress. 

interfere:を妨げる, 損なう, 害する
general unity:全面的な結束
traction:(政策・候補者などへの)支持.
stall:〈エンジン・車〉を止める; 〈飛行機〉を失速させる.

As Washington pushes on toward protectionism, NAFTA's other members will adjust course. Mexico and Canada alike will try to court new trade partners as NAFTA's future hangs in the balance. Canada, for example, will explore a trade deal with the Common Market of the South (better known by its Spanish acronym, Mercosur) while working to advance talks with Asian countries including India, Japan, China and Singapore. (Regardless of what happens to NAFTA, however, the United States will remain Canada's main trade partner.) 

Votes Against the Status Quo
In Mexico, the Trump administration's quest to renegotiate NAFTA will pave the way for a populist to contest the presidency in 2018. The country's endemic poverty, glaring wealth inequality and systemic corruption have for decades made it a fertile ground for populism. Though populist rhetoric fell out of fashion in recent years because it worried investors, the Mexican political landscape has slowly returned to form. Today, four major political parties are vying for control of the country. 

fell out of fashion:流行から外れる
vying:競う, 張り合う(compete)

Voters have soured on President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration over the past two years after a slew of corruption scandals and the government's perceived complacency in the face of Trump's threats to alter NAFTA. As the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party lost ground with the Mexican electorate, populist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador rose as a credible contender for the presidency. 

soured:嫌う, いやになる ≪on≫ .
slew : a slew of books たくさんの本.
perceived:気づく, 感づく
complacency:自己満足, 独り善がり.

Lopez Obrador, who has been consistently ahead in opinion polls, certainly appears to have a chance to win the July election. But if he were to take office, his administration — like those of his recent predecessors — would lack the power to effect radical policy changes. Lopez Obrador would depend on cooperation from Mexico's highly divided Congress to implement any policy agenda and would have to rely largely on presidential decrees to implement less popular initiatives, such as a review of existing energy contracts. 

decree:(統治者・政府・教会の) ≪…という≫ 法令, 命令, 布告 

Should he make good on the review, moreover, he would probably alarm investors and jeopardize individual agreements with foreign energy companies, even though his administration couldn't roll back all of Mexico's energy reforms. And regardless of which candidate clinches the presidency, cooperation with the United States on counternarcotics will be as important as ever. 

jeopardize :〈行為・状況など〉を危険にさらす, 危うくする
roll back:〈丸い・車輪付きの物〉を転がして返す.
clinches:(努力して)…を成し遂げる, …に決着を付ける
counternarcotics:麻薬対策

Colombia, meanwhile, is undergoing a similar political shift as a presidential vote hangs on the horizon in 2018. Widespread dissatisfaction over prolonged economic stagnation, revelations of corruption and the government's controversial peace negotiations with militants have weakened the ruling Social Party of National Unity. Several other political groups have broken their alliances with the ruling party to run their own presidential candidates, paving the way for a tight race. The first round of elections, scheduled for May, promises to be highly competitive; the vote will likely be split among four or five major contenders. 

revelations:(秘密などの)暴露, 摘発, すっぱ抜き

Whichever party prevails in the election, the next Colombian president probably won't derail the previous administration's peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. The legislature has already laid the groundwork for the agreement's final approval, which would come under threat in 2018 only if the right-leaning Democratic Center party follows through on a referendum to rescind the legislation underpinning the deal. A new government could, on the other hand, determine whether the government in Bogota continues peace talks with another militant group, the National Liberation Army, or enters a new negotiation to demobilize certain criminal groups. 

rescind:〈法律・合意など〉を無効にする, 廃止する, 撤回する.
underpinning:支える
demobilize:〈軍隊が〉動員を解かれる; 

In Brazil, too, a presidential election next year will showcase the country's discontent with established political elites. Years of recession and sluggish economic growth, which has only recently picked up, and a spate of corruption scandals have crippled some of the strongest political parties, including the Workers' Party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party. Their loss has been a boon for outsider politicians such as Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing lawmaker. 

showcase:を展示[陳列]する
discontent:不満, 不平(dissatisfaction)
picked up:〈状況・商売・生活・天気などが〉好転する, 上向く(improve)
spate:多数の
boon:有益な[役に立つ]物, 恩恵, 利益

Yet the next Brazilian administration is bound to be a weak one whose ability to govern will depend on how well it can appease the various political parties in Congress. The next year may also test the country's political stability. In 2018, a federal court will issue a final ruling on former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's conviction this year on corruption charges. Da Silva is a leading contender for the presidency, and his supporters could take to the streets if the court upholds his conviction and bars him from running for a third term in office in October. 

bound:きっと…する, …するはずだ(certain, sure)
weak:弱体化した
appease:〈相手〉に譲歩する.

South America's Economies Come Together
Until then, Brazil's outgoing administration will try to pass measures to reform the pension system and to privatize state assets before its time in office runs out. Argentina, likewise, will push to enact tax reform as well as new labor laws intended to favor investors. Buenos Aires' reforms are far from certain, though, since Argentina's historically populist Peronist parties hold a large enough majority in the Senate to stall them. 

Despite the odds against its reforms, Argentina, along with Brazil and the rest of Mercosur's members, will try to maintain its momentum in trade negotiations with partners outside the bloc as they enter 2018. The traditionally protectionist Mercosur has a narrow window of opportunity to expand its trade horizons before the pro-business administrations in Brazil and Argentina leave office in 2018 and 2019. 

To that end, the bloc's members will set out to negotiate as many trade agreements as possible over the next year, including deals with the European Union, Mexico, Canada and the European Free Trade Association. The talks won't always yield finished agreements, but the further policymakers get in the negotiations, the more likely that incoming administrations in Mercosur countries will be to move forward with them. 

トランプがNAFTAを廃止しようとしても、選挙を意識している議会が賛同しないだろう。NAFTAを廃止すると20万人の職が失われる。司法も賛同はしないだろう。メキシコもカナダも貿易相手国の見直しをするだろう。ただ、カナダはNAFATには関係なく、アメリカとの貿易は相変わらず最大である。

Enrique Pena Nietoは汚職の疑惑とNAFTAの煮え切らない彼の態度に人気を落としていて、今年の次の選挙ではLopez Obradorが勝つだろうが、彼は多数の支持を得ているのではないので、大きなことは出来ない。コロンビアは不景気と汚職とで今ひとつ元気が無いのとRevolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARCとの件でも武装解除がまだきちんと出来ていない。ブラジルは来年が選挙だが、いま汚職問題で主要な政党が問題になっている。Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva前大統領が有罪になるとその支持者のデモが激しくなるだろう。彼は無罪であれば立候補する。メルコスールは保守的なので、ブラジルもアルゼンチンも貿易相手国の拡大に努力するだろう。

木曜日。今日は森さんとの会食がる。ではまた明日。

ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.
 


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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