2018年01月11日

2018年の予測 (11)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (11)

2018年の予測 (11)

The Economics of Mercosur
The Economics of Mercosur

Venezuela Feels the Squeeze From Washington
Elsewhere in the region, a former Mercosur member — Venezuela — will continue its rapid decline. The country's economic decay will accelerate over the next year as the government defaults on foreign debt payments, high inflation spirals into hyperinflation and shortages of food and medical supplies worsen. At the same time, oil production, a crucial source of revenue to sustain Venezuela's diminishing food imports, will steadily fall. The economic crisis will persist for years. 

Squeeze:(経済的)苦境; ≪…に対する≫ 圧迫, 引き締め
decay: (精神・健康・富・勢いなどの)衰退, 衰え; 荒廃.

Though the Trump administration will have bigger priorities on its agenda in 2018, such as NAFTA negotiations, the United States nonetheless will intervene to try to shift Venezuela away from one-party rule. Washington and its allies in Latin America will pressure the Venezuelan government to hold competitive elections and to recognize the opposition-controlled legislature. Caracas, in turn, will consider negotiating with the U.S. government and the domestic opposition. 

legislature:〖通例the 〜; 集合的に〗立法府[部], 議会.

But the Venezuelan administration will join the talks only to stave off more sanctions from Washington; it's not interested in holding elections it could lose in 2018, at least not without a U.S. assurance of amnesty for its leaders. The Venezuelan leadership's drive for self-preservation will make any attempt at reconciliation between the government and the opposition difficult. Furthermore, free elections in which the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela could lose power would go against the interests of one of Venezuela's major stakeholders, the Cuban government. And even if other countries, such as Mexico, try to reduce Cuba's energy dependence on Venezuela, the beneficiaries of the political and military patronage networks embedded in Venezuela's state institutions will try to block attempts to institute free elections for fear of jeopardizing their privileges. 

stave off:を(一定期間)阻止する, 防ぐ, かわす
amnesty :【政治犯などに対する】恩赦; 大[特]赦(pardon) ≪for≫ .
assurance:(心配・疑念を取り除くための) ≪…についての/…という≫ 保証, 確約
patronage:(組織・事業・芸術などの)後援, (財政)支援.
beneficiaries:利益を得る人. 受益者

As the year unfolds and Venezuela's economy unravels, the risk of political unrest, whether in the form of protests or an attempted coup by members of the security forces, will increase. Renewed dissent alone will not pose an existential threat to the Venezuelan government unless large numbers of police or military units turn against the state. To keep the military on its side, President Nicolas Maduro's administration will allow the armed forces greater control of state oil and gas company Petroleos de Venezuela. A new wave of demonstrations, moreover, would struggle to gain momentum because more and more Venezuelans are opting to leave the country in search of a better life rather than staying and protesting. If factions of the military staged a coup, however, they would jeopardize the current government and may even prevail with enough support. 

unravels:〈もつれた糸・編み物など〉をほどく, 解く, ほぐす.
As the year unfolds:年月が経つにつれて
make a renewed effort:新たな努力をする
dissent:(多数派・権威への)異議, 不賛成, 不同意
jeopardize:〈行為・状況など〉を危険にさらす, 危うくする
prevail:〈事が〉首尾よく行く,

ベネズエラは経済が混乱し、デフォルト、ハイパーインフレーション、食料、医薬の不足をきたすであろうが、いくらアメリカが制裁しても、キューバのように便益を得ていtる国家が彼らを守ろうとするだろう。反政府運動では何も起こらない。軍部が政府に反旗を起こせば体制変革の可能性があるが、それでも、なんとかなってしまうかもしれない。

金曜日。今日はEarly Birdsの朝会がある。ではまた明日。

ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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