2018年01月12日

2018年の予測 (12)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (12)

2018年の予測 (12)


Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa is the world’s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran — Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers — and their competition for influence over the region’s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability. 

crossroads:十字路
encompasses:取り囲む
stuck:get stuck in traffic [a traffic jam] 交通渋滞に巻き込まれる

Section Highlights
Iran will lean heavily on Russia and Europe for support as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel team up to undercut it.
Determined to prevent Iran from following in North Korea's nuclear footsteps, the United States will redouble its efforts to counter Iranian influence across the Middle East. Though Washington's actions will jeopardize the Iranian nuclear deal, Tehran won't abandon the accord.
To the west, the diverging interests of Iran, Turkey, Russia and Syria will impede any meaningful progress in settling the Syrian civil war.
Saudi Arabia will make notable strides in reforming its economy, but it will struggle to achieve the same success in altering social behavior and expectations within the kingdom. 

undercut:邪魔する
follow in A's footsteps:Aの足跡をたどる, 例にならう
redouble one's efforts:いっそう努力する.
jeopardize:〈行為・状況など〉を危険にさらす, 危うくする
diverging:〈意見・関心などが〉分裂する, 分かれる; ≪…と≫ 異なる
impede:〈行為・進行など〉を妨害[じゃま]する, 遅らせる
notable:注目に値する, 目[興味]を引く〈人・物など〉

Middle East and North Africa
Against Iran, an Unlikely Alliance Rises
The United States will enter the new year intent on reining in Iran. The White House, Congress and the Pentagon share a firm resolve to undermine the formidable network of influence that Iran has built across the Middle East through its connections to an array of political and militant groups. North Korea's likely achievement of a nuclear deterrent in 2018 has only hardened Washington's determination to stop Tehran from heading down the same dangerous path. 

resolve:決意
formidable:手強い
array:勢ぞろいの[ずらりと並んだ]A〈物・人など〉; 多様なA
nuclear deterrent:核抑止力

The United States isn't the only country eyeing Iran's activities with concern. Saudi Arabia — Iran's regional nemesis — has watched anxiously as the Shiite power's reach has slowly spread through its backyard over the past few years. Emboldened by Washington's renewed campaign against its longtime adversary, Riyadh will seize the chance to challenge Tehran for dominance in the Middle East. Recognizing an opportunity of its own, Israel will lend support to Saudi Arabia and the United States in hopes of cutting down their common enemy. In doing so, Israel will pull its relationship with Saudi Arabia, which has historically existed behind the scenes, out from the shadows. 

nemesis:手ごわい[かなわない]相手; 強敵.
Emboldened:を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
cut down:打ちのめす

Negotiating the Fate of a Nuclear Deal
As tension rises between the United States and Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will hang by a thread, though it will probably survive the year. The deal was designed to halt Iran's nuclear weapons development program, and by most accounts — including that of the International Atomic Energy Agency — Tehran has complied with its terms. As long as Iran remains in compliance, it will enjoy sanctions relief as well as the ability to receive foreign investment and export oil. 

hang by a thread:危険にさらされている
by most accounts:おおかたの推測では、大抵のうわさに
complied:従う

But the White House believes the deal is neither robust enough to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions nor comprehensive enough to stymie Tehran's ballistic missile program, sponsorship of terrorism or support for militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled his intention to confront Iran on the matter when he decertified the JCPOA in October 2017. To Tehran, the move merely confirmed its long-held suspicion that Washington is not a credible negotiator. 

robust:断固とした
stymie:邪魔する

That different branches of the U.S. government have different ideas about how to approach the JCPOA will only add to the mixed signals coming from Washington. For its part, Congress will take steps to slap new sanctions on Iran while taking care not to violate the deal. Trump, on the other hand, has carefully surrounded himself with policy hawks who are more willing to infringe upon the agreement, regardless of whether Iran's activities are related to its nuclear program, to try to force it back to the negotiating table. Their hard-line stance toward Iran will accelerate the deterioration of Washington's relationship with Tehran. And by stripping away the security guarantees implicit in the agreement, the United States will set itself on a collision course with Iran throughout the Middle East. 

branches:分岐
infringe:【権利・自由などを】制限する, 侵害する
surround oneself with :人・物〉を常に自分の周りに置く

The White House's willingness to threaten the deal will revive Tehran's old paranoia as it guards against what it believes to be a concerted effort by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel to destabilize the Islamic Republic. Iran will not be the first to walk away from the nuclear deal, for fear of its economy falling into disrepair once more amid renewed sanctions. But threats to the JCPOA and harsher economic measures emanating from the United States will stir up hard-liners in Iran who don't value dialogue with the West as much as moderates like Iranian President Hassan Rouhani do. These factions will be able to secure more defense funding and popular support. However, Iranians across the political spectrum will be eager to keep the nuclear deal intact so that the country can continue to export oil and court investment from Europe, China and Russia. 

threaten:おびやかす
paranoia:被害[誇大]妄想, 疑心暗鬼.
fall into disrepair:破損[荒廃]する.
amid:amid the chaos 混乱のさなかに
emanating:〈声・考え・提案などが〉発する
stir:〈感情〉をかき立てる(up)
spectrum:both ends of the political spectrum (右翼・左翼の)政治理念の両極端.
intact:損なわれていない

Iran will turn to its allies in Europe and Russia to help protect the agreement's framework. After all, the sanctions that the JCPOA lifted were leveled against European companies, not Iran. As a result, most EU members have defended the deal as a means of allowing their economic transactions with Iran to continue while curbing Tehran's nuclear program. The Continent will thus appeal to the United States to uphold the agreement. Russia will join Europe in its support for the JCPOA, as the closer ties forged by two years of cooperation between it and Iran in the Syrian civil war begin to bear fruit for Tehran off the battlefield. 

leveled:Severe criticisms were leveled at the government. 厳しい批判が政府に向けられた.

中東と北アフリカはまさしく、世界が今、最も注目する地域でトルコ、イラン、サウジ、エジプト、それとイスラエルが混然とこの地域で、紛糾している。そこにロシアがしっかり噛み込んでいて、アメリカもイランに対して、強行な態度に出ている。特に、イランとの核抑止力の協定ではミサイル開発とかヒズボラへの支援があるので、この協定に対してアメリカは否定的だが、ヨーロッパもロシアもこの協定が破棄され、再び、イランを制裁することには反対だ。イランも自国の経済に対する影響を考えると、このままでいたい。

土曜日。海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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