2018年01月15日

2018年の予測 (14)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (14)
2018年の予測 (14)

Jockeying for Political Influence
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will stir up trouble for Iran on political battlegrounds as it works to undermine Iranian-backed parties and politicians in Iraq and Lebanon. Iraq will hold general elections in May, offering the country a rare moment to assert its independence from the foreign powers involved within its borders. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will champion an emerging strain of nationalism that advocates the resistance of external influence (including from the United States, Iran and Turkey), while Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr will embrace the same rhetoric in hopes of channeling it into electoral gains. 

Jockeying:【地位などをめぐる】駆け引き, 画策
stir up:問題を引き起こす 
champion:〈弱者・主義など〉を擁護する, …のために闘う(fight for)
Muqtada al-Sadr:ムクタダー・アッ=サドルは、イラクのシーア派のウラマーで、フッジャトル・イスラーム。シーア派の反米強硬派民兵組織マフディー軍及び政治組織「サドル潮流」の指導者。 ウィキペディア

After the elections have wrapped up, Iran will use its connections to Iraq's Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces — some of those militias have created political wings that will participate in the race — to shape coalition building in Baghdad. To balance against these groups, the GCC will funnel money and aid to other Sunni and Shiite parties in Iraq. Given the entrenchment of the Shiite Iraqi politicians aligned with Iran, however, the Gulf bloc will have difficulty weakening Tehran's influence. 

Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU):The PMU became regarded as an official force with similar rights as those of the regular army. On December 11th, 2017, the PMU began to be entirely consolidated under the Iraqi Armed Forces, following a call by the Iraqi top Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to integrate.
entrenchment:(考え・態度の)固定化, 確立; 身を守る事

To the north, in Iraqi Kurdistan, a failed attempt to declare independence toward the end of 2017 made the split between Arbil province (led by the Kurdistan Democratic Party) and Sulaimaniyah province (led by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) even more pronounced. Turkey and Iran will settle back into their long-standing roles as the parties' respective economic and political patrons in the year ahead. As the autonomous region's negotiations with the central government progress, Baghdad will use its relationship with Tehran to try to drive the wedge between the Kurdish parties deeper — exacerbating Iran's competition with Turkey in the country in the process. The widening rift among Iraq's Kurds will be clear in the results of the region's general elections in 2018, hindering Arbil's ability to barter with Baghdad over oil revenue and disputed territory. 

pronounced:〈見解が〉はっきりした
settle back into clear sky:晴天に戻る
drive a wedge into the organization:組織に亀裂を生じさせる
barter:物々交換する, 交易する ≪with/for≫

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will try to use Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri to influence politics in Beirut in order to undermine Hezbollah's interests. But the militant group is deeply entrenched in Lebanon, and despite the small diplomatic gains that Saudi Arabia will eke out among the country's Sunni and Christian communities next year, Riyadh will not be able to mount an effective assault on the insurgency's standing in the country. Turkey will encounter similar barriers as it leans on its links to Sunni leaders in Lebanon to try to counter Iran's militant partner. 

entrenched:〈信念・習慣・権力など〉を確立[固定化]する
eke out:金・食料・燃料などをなんとか持たせる; 〈生計など〉を立てる; 〈不足など〉を補う.

Even so, Turkey will seek out other means of making its own mark on the Middle East. Qatar will be an unlikely ally in this regard: Both countries desire regional prestige and independence from their powerful neighbors, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In the coming year, Turkey will shore up its support for Qatar by deploying troops and military equipment to its territory and ramping up trade. Turkey's growing presence on the Arabian Peninsula will antagonize Saudi Arabia while underscoring the divides permeating the GCC. At the same time, the emerging partnership between Turkey and Qatar will frustrate the Saudi kingdom's attempts to solidify its position as the dominant Sunni power in the Middle East. 

make one's mark in the world:天下に名を成す、世界的に有名になる
antagonize:を敵に回す, …に反感[敵意]を抱かせる.
underscoring:を強調する, 明白にする(⦅主に英⦆underline).
permeating:〈思想・感情などが〉…に行き渡る, 広がる, 充満する; 普及する.


サウジはイランに対して、イラクとレバノンとの関連で、問題を持つことになる。イラクはシーア派のムクタダー・アッ=サドルが実権を握っているし、シーア派のMPUがある。レバノンはハリリ首相に圧力をかけても、ヒズボラは実権を持っていて、動じない。一方、イラク北部のクルドに関してはクルドが2つの県で意見が対立しているので、それをうまくイラク政府は利用し、押さえ込もうとするだろう。また、トルコは彼らとは一線を画し、カタールを抱き込んで、サウジに対抗するだろう。

月曜日。今日は小野さんの新年会がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:27コメント(0) 

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓