2018年01月17日

2018年の予測 (17)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (17)

2018年の予測 (17)



Eurasia
Eurasia is the world’s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia’s farthest reaches — a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia’s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability. 

tract:a tract of land 広い地域.
insulate:〈電線など〉を絶縁する
borderlands:国境地帯, 境界地域.

Section Highlights
As its standoff with the West intensifies in 2018, Russia will look to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East.
The United States and Russia will spar over sanctions and arms control agreements as Moscow strives to undermine the unity of NATO and the European Union through hybrid warfare.
Presidential and regional elections in Russia will serve as a crucial test for the Kremlin, which will have to deal with converging crises at home.
Though negotiations over the Ukrainian conflict will pick up over the next year, they will fail to produce a resolution to the war in Donbas.
Economic and security challenges will test governments across Central Asia and encourage Russia and China to collaborate more closely in the region to stave off instability.

standoff:手詰まり, 膠着状態(deadlock) 
spar:意見を交わす, 口論する
converging:収束する

Moscow Looks to the East 
As 2018 approaches, Russia — the linchpin of Eurasia — is undergoing a shift in its foreign policy. Years of deteriorating ties with the United States and Europe have led Moscow to recalibrate its priorities and strategy heading into the new year.

undergo rapid changes:急激な変化を遂げる.
recalibrate:〔測定器の目盛りを〕再検査[調整・測定]する

As part of this adjustment, Russia will intensify its focus on the Asia-Pacific in 2018. As North Korea draws closer to demonstrating that it has achieved a credible nuclear deterrent, Russia will continue its behind-the-scenes support for the North Korean government by supplying fuel and maintaining trade ties with the isolated country. It won't have much of an opportunity to act as spoiler or peacemaker in the brewing conflict with Pyongyang, however, since the North Korean administration will forge ahead in its quest for a nuclear deterrent regardless of Moscow's economic and logistical backing. 

spoiler:ぶち壊し屋

Furthermore, mounting concerns over the rogue administration across the border will compel Russia to temper its support for North Korea. Nevertheless, Russia will work to maintain its influence in the country, which it will try to use as leverage in talks with the United States, as well as with Japan and South Korea. It will also look for opportunities to exploit differences among the members of the U.S. trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea. And all the while, Moscow will stay in lockstep with Beijing over the North Korean problem, advocating a containment policy and nonmilitary responses. 

compel:〈行為・物などが〉〈ある反応・変化・注目など〉を招く, 引き起こす
temper: …を加減[抑制]する; 〈感情など〉の強さを緩和する
exploit :につけこむ, …を不当に利用する
all the while:その間ずっと[いつも]
in lockstep:決められた通りに, 足並みをそろえて.

China, in fact, will play an important role in Russia's foreign and domestic strategies in 2018. As Russia's largest trading partner, China has helped ease the country's economic dependence on the West. Moscow hopes to continue that trend in the coming years by securing Chinese investment across the country in the energy, transportation and agricultural sectors. In addition, Beijing will facilitate Moscow's efforts to bolster its financial systems and cyber capabilities, and the two will strengthen their defense ties through military exercises and cooperation, as well. 

Their relationship also will extend to joint initiatives elsewhere. In Central Asia, for instance, Russia and China have established a kind of division of labor: China concentrates on economic issues in the region, while Russia focuses on security matters. Redoubling their collaboration will enable both countries to insulate themselves from U.S. pressure and to challenge Washington's strategic position in various theaters around the world. 

division of labor:分業
Redoubling:努力・熱意を強くする, 倍増する

ユーラシアは巨大な大陸だが、その中核にロシアが存在する。ロシアは西側諸国とは軋轢を持ったまま、今年はアジアと中東に焦点を当てていく。アメリカのロシアへの経済制裁は継続する一方で、ロシアはNATOとEUの分裂を図っていく。ウクライナの問題は依然として継続したままだ。中央アジアにおいてはロシアと中国はそれぞれ住み分けていく。中国は経済をロシアは安全保障をリードしていく。北朝鮮に対しては中国と連携して進めていくが、アメリカ、日本、韓国の意見の食い違いをうまく利用していく。

木曜日。今日は石油会がある。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

swingby_blog at 22:35コメント(0) 

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓