2018年の予測 (17)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (17)

2018年の予測 (17)

Eurasia is the world’s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia’s farthest reaches — a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia’s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability. 

tract:a tract of land 広い地域.
borderlands:国境地帯, 境界地域.

Section Highlights
As its standoff with the West intensifies in 2018, Russia will look to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East.
The United States and Russia will spar over sanctions and arms control agreements as Moscow strives to undermine the unity of NATO and the European Union through hybrid warfare.
Presidential and regional elections in Russia will serve as a crucial test for the Kremlin, which will have to deal with converging crises at home.
Though negotiations over the Ukrainian conflict will pick up over the next year, they will fail to produce a resolution to the war in Donbas.
Economic and security challenges will test governments across Central Asia and encourage Russia and China to collaborate more closely in the region to stave off instability.

standoff:手詰まり, 膠着状態(deadlock) 
spar:意見を交わす, 口論する

Moscow Looks to the East 
As 2018 approaches, Russia — the linchpin of Eurasia — is undergoing a shift in its foreign policy. Years of deteriorating ties with the United States and Europe have led Moscow to recalibrate its priorities and strategy heading into the new year.

undergo rapid changes:急激な変化を遂げる.

As part of this adjustment, Russia will intensify its focus on the Asia-Pacific in 2018. As North Korea draws closer to demonstrating that it has achieved a credible nuclear deterrent, Russia will continue its behind-the-scenes support for the North Korean government by supplying fuel and maintaining trade ties with the isolated country. It won't have much of an opportunity to act as spoiler or peacemaker in the brewing conflict with Pyongyang, however, since the North Korean administration will forge ahead in its quest for a nuclear deterrent regardless of Moscow's economic and logistical backing. 


Furthermore, mounting concerns over the rogue administration across the border will compel Russia to temper its support for North Korea. Nevertheless, Russia will work to maintain its influence in the country, which it will try to use as leverage in talks with the United States, as well as with Japan and South Korea. It will also look for opportunities to exploit differences among the members of the U.S. trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea. And all the while, Moscow will stay in lockstep with Beijing over the North Korean problem, advocating a containment policy and nonmilitary responses. 

compel:〈行為・物などが〉〈ある反応・変化・注目など〉を招く, 引き起こす
temper: …を加減[抑制]する; 〈感情など〉の強さを緩和する
exploit :につけこむ, …を不当に利用する
all the while:その間ずっと[いつも]
in lockstep:決められた通りに, 足並みをそろえて.

China, in fact, will play an important role in Russia's foreign and domestic strategies in 2018. As Russia's largest trading partner, China has helped ease the country's economic dependence on the West. Moscow hopes to continue that trend in the coming years by securing Chinese investment across the country in the energy, transportation and agricultural sectors. In addition, Beijing will facilitate Moscow's efforts to bolster its financial systems and cyber capabilities, and the two will strengthen their defense ties through military exercises and cooperation, as well. 

Their relationship also will extend to joint initiatives elsewhere. In Central Asia, for instance, Russia and China have established a kind of division of labor: China concentrates on economic issues in the region, while Russia focuses on security matters. Redoubling their collaboration will enable both countries to insulate themselves from U.S. pressure and to challenge Washington's strategic position in various theaters around the world. 

division of labor:分業
Redoubling:努力・熱意を強くする, 倍増する



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