2018年01月18日

2018年の予測 (18)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (18)

2018年の予測 (18)

Top 5 Russian Trade Partners

Top 5 Russian Trade Partners
But the growing partnership between Russia and China can go only so far in the long run. Beijing and Moscow, after all, are natural rivals with overlapping spheres of influence. So though they will keep broadening the frontiers of their cooperation for now, their alliance will eventually have to contend with diverging views and competing priorities. In the meantime, the burgeoning partnership won't sit well with Japan. Tokyo will offer financial support for strategic projects such as liquefied natural gas facilities to curb Beijing's increasing influence in Russia. Moscow, in turn, will be only too happy to accept. 

contend:〈困難・問題など〉に取り組む
burgeoning:〈人口・町などが〉急増する, 急成長の.

Infrastructure Between Russia and China

Infrastructure Between Russia and China
Beyond the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East will figure prominently in Russia's foreign policy next year. The balance of power is shifting in the region now that coalition forces have all but defeated the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Moscow intends to use the clout that its role in the Syrian civil war has earned it to try to influence other foreign powers with stakes in the region to shift the balance in its favor. 

figure:figure prominently in  の中で重要な役割を担う

Russia has four goals for this endeavor: to gain leverage in its negotiations with the West; to contain and counter the threat of Islamic extremism; to turn its relationships with regional powers to its favor; and to increase its access to energy, arms and agriculture markets in the area. With the entire region in play, Moscow will cultivate partnerships with several countries in the Middle East and North Africa in an effort to undermine the U.S. position there. Russia, for example, will work to restore its military presence in the region by leasing an air base in Egypt and by increasing arms sales to Libya. 

The tide is about to turn in his favor.:情勢は彼の有利に変わろうとしている

Iran will serve an essential role in Russia's activities in the Middle East over the next year. Since the U.S presidential administration decertified the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the deal halting Iran's nuclear weapons development — the agreement's future has come under greater doubt, and the threat of renewed economic sanctions has loomed larger over Tehran. Moscow will take advantage of the rising tensions between the United States and Iran to bolster its relationship with Tehran, building on the firm foundation it established through cooperation with Iran in Syria. Much as it does in its growing partnership with China, Russia sees in its ties with Iran an opportunity to counter the United States' strategic position. But their alliance, much like the one between Moscow and Beijing, also has clear limits, considering the conflicting interests of Russia and Iran in the Caucasus and in Central Asia. 

Russia will hit similar roadblocks as it works to strengthen its relationships with Turkey and with Saudi Arabia in 2018. As Moscow tries to pursue common interests with Ankara — and to use their deepening ties to widen Turkey's rifts with NATO and with the European Union — the two will butt heads. Turkey, for example, will object to Russia's outreach to the Kurds and to Moscow's overtures to Ankara's rivals in the region. The mounting hostility between the Saudi Arabia and Iran, likewise, will hamper Russia's budding alliance with the kingdom. 

butt heads with:〜とぶつかる[衝突する・角を突き合わせる]
overtures:予備交渉, 申し出, 提案(proposal)
hamper:さまたげる

ロシアと中国は利害関係があっているので、うまくいく。日本は面白くないが、ガスパイプラインの協力体制ぐらいしか出来ない。中東においてはロシアはイランとシリアを抱き込んでいる。シリアの内戦においてはその実力を示してきた。その結果、西側に対しての交渉力を得た。ISISを押さえ込んだ。近隣諸国に対して有利になった。中東にたいして、ロシアの商品を売り込める。アメリカとイランは核交渉で対立しているので、ロシアにとっては好都合だ。ただ、多少の領土問題はある。ロシアはトルコとはうまくいきそうだが、クルドを支援しているので、トルコとは対立している。サウジとはイランとの関係があるからうまくは行かない。

金曜日。今日は田辺先生の会合がある。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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