2018年01月19日

2018年の予測 (19)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (19)

2018年の予測 (19)

Echoes of the Cold War 
Though the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East will take up more of Russia's attention in the coming year, Moscow's relations with the West will be no less important. Tensions are liable to rise in 2018 between Russia and the United States. Washington has signaled that it may ramp up its pressure on Russia in the coming year through a variety of means, including a heavier sanctions regime and lethal arms sales to Ukraine. At the same time, the United States is building up its ballistic missile defenses in Europe and Asia. The campaign will further strain its bilateral arms treaties with Russia, which will be all the more difficult to renegotiate since Washington has threatened Moscow with punitive measures for allegedly violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. 

take up:〈申し出・挑戦・機会など〉を受け入れる
liable:しそうだ

Having come to grips with life under existing sanctions, Moscow is determined to avoid incurring more sanctions from Washington in 2018. With that in mind, Russia will highlight areas in which it would be willing either to work with the United States or to negotiate concessions, such as the peace process in Syria, talks with North Korea or the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, will prepare for its ties with Washington to further deteriorate by shoring up its relationships in Asia and in the Middle East and by pursuing military buildups in its borderlands, for instance by permanently deploying the Iskander missile system in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

come to grips with:〈困難な状況など〉に真剣に取り組む.
determined:確たる意志を持った, 意志の強い
incurring:こうむる
willing:する意志[気]がある, …するのをいとわない
ties:関係
deteriorate:悪化する
shoring:を補強する(up).
exclave:本国から離れて, 他国に囲まれた領土

Adding to Russia's sanctions worries, the European Union will vote to maintain its punitive measures on the country throughout the next year. The bloc, however, won't follow suit if the United States slaps new sanctions on Moscow for political interference, despite the fact that 2018 will give Russia ample opportunity to meddle in Europe's affairs. As Italy prepares to hold general elections by May, the Kremlin will use its tried-and-true weapons of hybrid warfare — disinformation, propaganda and cyberattacks — in hopes of bringing a more sympathetic government to power in Rome. 

vote:選ぶ 提案する
follow suit:先例に倣う 真似をする
ample:ample opportunity [evidence] 十分な機会[証拠].
meddle:干渉する
tried-and-true:実証済みの
hybrid warfare :Warfare that blends conventional warfare and irregular warfare (potentially including cyberwarfare かつ information warfare) — the full spectrum of conflict.
disinformation:(相手をだますための)偽りの情報 
sympathetic:賛成の 好意的な

An administration led by the Five Star Movement, after all, could perhaps break the unanimous vote required to extend the EU sanctions against Russia in the future. Influencing the elections' outcome won't be easy, as Moscow learned during the recent political races in France and Germany. Even so, Russia will keep up its efforts to sow discord among the bloc's member states and their electorates, even if it doesn't accomplish its goals for the Italian election. 

sow:不快な感情・状況など〉の種をまく
accomplish:〈変化・目標など〉を遂げる

Russia's Internal Struggle
At home, Moscow will have a host of problems to contend with next year. Russia's worsening economic and financial straits will be one of its biggest challenges. After officially pulling out of recession this year, the country is settling into a prolonged period of stagnation. Banks are failing in near-record numbers, regional governments are defaulting on their debts, more and more businesses are going bankrupt, and a growing number of state firms need bailing out. These issues will stretch the Kremlin's finances, sap its sovereign wealth funds and force the government to borrow at least $18 billion more abroad. 

a host of other problems:多くのほかの問題
straits:(主に財政的な)難局, 苦境, 困難, 貧窮
stagnation:不況, 景気停滞.
near-record:新記録に近い数字
sap:徐々に奪う
sovereign wealth fund:主権国家資産ファンド、政府系(投資)ファンド◆政府が出資する投資ファンド

Finding funding could become even more difficult if the United States imposes sanctions to discourage Western markets from lending to Russia, though Moscow's growing economic ties in Asia and the Middle East will give it some alternative options. Either way, Russia's financial woes are too great for Moscow to shoulder. The Kremlin will have to let some businesses, banks and maybe even a regional government fail as it works to manage the fallout to avoid destabilizing the political system ahead of presidential and regional elections in 2018. 

financial woes:金銭的苦難.
fallout:後遺症

ロシアはアジアと中東に関心を高めているが、アメリカはロシアに更なる制裁をかけようとしていて、また軍事協定においてもうまく行っていない。ヨーロッパはこの追加制裁には乗り気ではない。ロシアは今の制裁のせいで、景気が低迷していて、今年の選挙にも影響が出いるような状態だ。そのためロシアは西側から資金調達をしなければならないが、今の制裁があるので、資金調達がままならない。アジアとか中東から資金の目当てを考えられなくはないが、経済の安定を図らなければならない。

土曜日。今日は海野塾があり、午前は台湾で、午後は苑田講師の日本の精神がある。ではまた明日。

ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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