2018年の予測 (20)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (20)

2018年の予測 (20)

Russian Economic Woes

Russian Economic Woes
The contests, slated for March and September 2018, respectively, will serve as a test for President Vladimir Putin and his detractors alike. Despite the buzz in Western media, however, Putin has no credible challenger for his office. His opponents represent an array of ideologies and personalities, and the government will seize on their differences to keep the opposition divided. Still, the ruling United Russia party understands that the swelling tide of protest movements, particularly among young Russians, requires a new strategy. The Kremlin, to that end, will roll out fresh messaging to target the youth vote and try to energize the electorate. And in the likely event that Putin wins another term in office, his administration will use his victory to restore faith in his legitimacy. The various opposition groups, in turn, will hold protests across Russia in the run-up to the vote and may even stage mass demonstrations around Putin's re-election. 

Woes:災い, 困難
a buzz of conversation:話し声によるざわつき.
a credible candidate:見込みのある候補者.
restore faith in:〜の信頼を取り戻す
in the run-up to the coming election:来たるべき選挙を目前に控えて.

Unrest won't be the only political challenge awaiting Putin in his next term. Infighting within the Kremlin will increase next year. While powerful elites such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and oil tycoon Igor Sechin break with Putin to pursue their own agendas, the president will consolidate a coalition of his most loyal advisers to protect him and help him implement his policies. Putin won't fully crack down on the renegades, but he could undertake reshufflings in his administration to limit their power. The result will be an ever-more centralized, authoritarian presidency and a progressively more fragmented political system. 

Unrest:(社会・政治的な)不安, 不穏(な状況), 不満
Infighting:(組織内での)内輪もめ, 内部抗争, 内ゲバ.
break with:| breɪk | 決別する
undertake:〈事〉を始める, …に乗り出す, 着手する
fragmented: | fráɡməntɪd |ばらばらの, 分裂[崩壊]した.

Compared with the presidential election, the regional votes promise to be a tighter race for United Russia. Liberal opposition groups made gains in this year's regional elections. To slow their progress in the 2018 contest, the Kremlin will keep exploiting the divisions between them. Moscow may also crack down to try to curb protests across the country, while allowing some demonstrations to continue as a way to ease the political pressure building in Russia. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands 
Just beyond Russia's borders, the new year will bring its share of activity and instability. Ukraine, for example, will spend 2018 gearing up for its own presidential and parliamentary elections to follow in 2019 — its first since the snap votes that followed the Euromaidan uprising in 2014. Leading up to the 2019 elections, protests and government shake-ups are likely, and early legislative votes are possible. But the country won't deviate from its Western-oriented foreign policy as it weathers another year of war in the eastern part of its territory. 

snap vote:抜き打ち投票
legislative votes:議会により可決された投票
weathers:〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける

Though the United States and Russia will proceed with negotiations over the conflict in Donbass — and may even make some headway on the issue of U.N. peacekeepers in the region — a broader resolution will remain elusive in 2018. As a result, Ukraine will continue to receive political, economic and security backing from the United States and its Western allies while it strives to further its economic, energy and security integration with Poland and the Baltic States. Russia, meanwhile, will ramp up its hybrid warfare campaign — including cyberattacks and assassinations — against the country and its supporters. 

make some headway in:〜の点でいくらか前進する
elusive:〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.
ramp up:増やす

Southwest of Ukraine, elections could plunge Moldova into political turmoil next year. If the November vote goes in President Igor Dodon's favor — and to the detriment of the coalition that has long ruled the country — Moldova could start rolling back its efforts at integration with the European Union, at odds with the interests of pro-European groups. At the same time, it would probably also begin collaborating more closely with Russia on economic and security issues. Large protests before and after the elections are possible. 

to the detriment of :〈物・事・人〉を犠牲にして, に損害を与えて
roll back:後退させる
at odds with:〜と不和で、〜と争って、〜と意見が食い違って、〜との関係が悪化して

Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms. 

arbiter:裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).仲裁者(arbitrator).
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:ナゴルノカラバフ問題 アゼルバイジャン南部のナゴルノカラバフ自治州のアルメニアへの帰属問題。



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