2018 Annual Forecast　(21)

2018年の予測 (21)

Instability in Central Asia 
The states of Central Asia, like so many of their fellow former Soviet republics, are in for a year of political transition. In 2018, Kazakhstan will probably follow in the footsteps of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which underwent mostly smooth transfers of power this year. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will move forward with plans for his succession, having ruled his country since before the Soviet Union's collapse. Rather than risk destabilizing Kazakhstan by suddenly surrendering his office, Nazarbayev will instead gradually devolve power to Parliament and to key members of the political elite, while overseeing the country's operations from behind the scenes. 

But even if the transition goes off without a hitch, Kazakhstan and the other Central Asian states will face numerous threats to their stability in the next year. Low energy prices will compound the socio-economic pressures in the region, giving rise to protests. Uzbekistan will try to alleviate the strain by enacting economic reforms designed to attract foreign investment. It will also make efforts to improve its relations with neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in a bid to help ease border disputes and disagreements over resource allocation. 

Dealing with the growing threat of militancy will be a steeper task, given the region's internal security concerns and its proximity to Afghanistan and Syria. Governments across the region will resort to crackdowns and a more centralized power structure to mitigate the risk to their security. In addition, the region's two most influential external powers — Russia and China — will step up their security efforts in Central Asia in 2018. Moscow will focus on expanding its security presence there while Beijing assumes a more active role in counterterrorism efforts. 

militancy：(政治的･社会的変化等を目指して)力[圧力]を用いること; 好戦的なこと.

カザフスタンはウズベキスタンやキルギスタンに習って、穏便に政権の移行をしていくだろう。これらの諸国はアフガニスタンやシリアに隣接しているのと石油価格が低迷しているので、正常は安定していないが、ウズベキスタンは外資の導入に気を配るとともに、キルギスタンやタジキスタンとの国境紛争を緩和しようとするだろう。安全保障面においてはロシアと中国が大きく関わってくる。

Europe
To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

predisposed：(し)がちな, の傾向にある; 病気などになりやすい[がちな]
cohere：(1つに)まとまる
meandering：曲がりくねる
plain：平原, 平野
impeded：遅らせる
riven：〈国家･組織などが〉分裂して
irreconcilable：〈考えなどが〉 相いれない

Section Highlights
The debate over how best to reform the European Union will take the spotlight in 2018, laying bare the regional rifts that divide the Continent.
Though France and Germany will be at the heart of this debate, they will prove more willing to cooperate than to confront each other. To that end, Paris will agree to water down or postpone many of its proposals for the bloc.
General elections in Italy will generate uncertainty about the eurozone's future. Though the country won't leave the currency area in the coming year, its next government will lobby for the authorization to boost public spending.
The United Kingdom will spend 2018 negotiating the terms of a trade agreement with the European Union. Though leaders probably will reach an arrangement for the transition period following the Brexit, a trade deal will be tougher to obtain.
The Continental bloc also will seek out free trade agreements with other countries, a strategy that will become a cornerstone of the bloc's foreign policy.

water down：〈改革など〉を骨抜きにする

ヨーロッパは南北ともにまとまりにくく、亀裂が入ったままだ。仏独は協調していくだろう。イタリアは選挙次第だが、いずれにしても、ユーロ圏にはとどまるだろうが、緊縮財政はとらないだろう。イギリスはBrexitの交渉があるのだが、いい方向にはいかないだろう。EUはその他の諸国との自由貿易に尽力し、その戦略は対外政策のかなめとなるだろう。

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