2018年01月22日

2018年の予測 (22)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (22)

2018年の予測 (22)

Debating a Continent's Future
Talks about the shape of the European Union's structure and governance will take center stage on the Continent this year. Among the items on the bloc's agenda are ways to deepen financial integration, mechanisms to cope with future crises and strategies to increase security and defense cooperation. But finding a way forward won't be easy. While most EU members agree that political, institutional and economic reforms are needed, they do not agree on what those reforms should look like or how to go about implementing them. Over time, these issues will once again expose the enduring divisions between Europe's north and south and its east and west. 

enduring:長期間続く

At the center of the debate will be France and Germany. Though the two powerhouses are eager to preserve their alliance, they have different visions for the European Union. The French government, which campaigned on a promise to transform the bloc, has already introduced economic reforms at home. Now that it is on more equal footing with Berlin than it has been in many years, an emboldened Paris will aim to advance its interests at the Continental level. France hopes to create new structures that would allow for greater public spending and financial risk sharing within the bloc — a goal that many countries in Southern Europe, including Italy and Spain, share. These states also advocate the introduction of a common unemployment insurance for EU workers and a common deposit insurance for EU banks. 

preserve:〈平和・状況・水準〉を保つ
on an equal footing with :と対等の関係で.
emboldened:〈人〉を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
share:共有する
advocate:を提唱[主張, 擁護, 推奨]する
deposit:預金

Germany isn't necessarily opposed to these ideas. It does, however, want to make sure that they are accompanied by more efficient oversight of the fiscal policies and financial sectors of member states. Berlin believes that countries often bend the bloc's fiscal rules and that the institutions tasked with enforcing regulations are too politicized. Several Northern European states, such as Austria and the Netherlands, share this view. 

A lower price does not necessarily mean a better buy.:安価な物が必ずしも買い得だとはいえない
oversight :監視

Still, France and Germany will have to wait to hash out a compromise until Berlin settles one of its own pressing political problems: the formation of a new government. The process of trying to build a governing coalition in Germany will consume the first few months of the year. Should the talks fail, early elections will ensue, delaying any European negotiations. 

hash out:〈問題・困難など〉をじっくり話して解決する.:
ensue:から[の結果として]すぐに起こる, 続く

Regardless of when the bartering between Germany and France begins, Berlin will protect its interests, and Paris will not get everything it wants. Instead, many French proposals will be watered down or adapted to meet German demands; others will be postponed. Room for cooperation certainly exists on some issues, such as boosting security and defense cooperation and harmonizing the tax systems of EU members. But other topics — especially those that involve financial transfers from Northern Europe to Southern Europe — will be more controversial. 

bartering:〈物〉を交換する(trade)

For the most part, France and Germany will be more interested in cooperation than confrontation. But it is unclear whether their willingness to work together will be enough to keep Europe united. 

今年はヨーロッパの構造改革の年だ。金融統合、将来の危機に向けての仕組みづくり、安全保障の協力体制の構築。ただ、こうしたことに合意するのは大変なことだ。それぞれ意見が異なるからだ。その中でも独仏がそのコアとなるだあろう。ドイツの政治体制が固まらない。フランスとドイツの意見も相当異なるので、その調整が必要だろう。最後に、ドイツが渋るのは北から南への資金援助だろう。安全保障の協力とか、EUの課税システムについては問題ないだろう。

火曜日。今日は虫歯の治療だ。いやだなあ。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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