2018年01月23日

2018年の予測 (23)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (23)

2018年の予測 (23)

The Fate of the Eurozone
Italy will be the main source of uncertainty for the eurozone next year. The country will hold general elections by May, and most of its political parties have criticized the EU's deficit targets. Some are also critical of the eurozone. No matter who wins the elections, Rome's next administration will push to increase public spending and redesign the bloc's deficit goals. 

He is strongly [highly] critical of government actions.:彼は政府の活動に非常に批判的である

The difference between the parties, however, is in their tone. Some, like the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League, will be more willing than others to threaten Brussels with unilateral measures if the European Union does not meet their demands. These threats could include ignoring the bloc's fiscal targets or leaving the eurozone. 

catch something in someone's tone:(人)の声音に何か引っ掛かるものを感じる

Of course, Italy isn't likely to exit the currency area in 2018, but the rise of a Euroskeptic government in the eurozone's third-largest economy could still put the currency bloc at risk. The mere threat of flouting eurozone rules or quitting it outright could cause concern in financial markets, lead to higher borrowing costs for Southern European countries, and raise questions about the prospects of Italy's fragile banks. On top of these economic risks, a more Euroskeptic Italy would face the prospect of political and institutional isolation within the European Union. 

flouting :(故意に)〈法・規則など〉を無視する

Who Owns Italy's Sovereign Debt?
Who Owns Italy's Sovereign Debt?
Given the fragmentation within Italian politics, the approaching elections are likely to end in a hung parliament. Yet even if the parties fail to cobble together a coalition government, they could still appoint a prime minister by consensus. EU institutions and financial markets would welcome such a decision because it would temporarily avert a financial crisis. But it would come at a steep cost, creating a government that is constantly on the verge of collapse, weakening Italy's influence in international affairs and undermining Rome's ability to introduce sweeping economic reforms. If, on the other hand, lawmakers are unable to agree on a prime minister, Italy might hold another round of elections by the end of 2018, prolonging the uncertainty obscuring the country's future. 

hung :絶対多数政党のいない〈議会など〉
cobble:〈取り決めなど〉を早急にまとめる(together).
sweeping changes:大改革
avert:防ぐ
prolonging:〈時間・期間など〉を延長する

Italy won't be the only eurozone member grappling with tough questions next year, either. Greece's bailout program ends in August, at which point Athens will try to reduce the sway foreign lenders have over its policymaking. At the same time, however, Greece will ask its creditors to alleviate its debt burden. Athens' financiers will refuse to write down parts of Greece's debt. But they may be more amenable to other measures, such as an extension of debt maturities, lower interest rates and a grace period for debt repayments, particularly if Greece agrees to keep introducing economic and institutional reforms. Athens may indeed be willing to make this commitment if the requested measures are less painful than those attached to its bailout. So although Greece will remain a source of concern for the eurozone in 2018, its membership in the currency area won't be in jeopardy. 

sway:影響力
financiers:(大口)投資家.
amenable:| əmíːnəb(ə)l | 快く応じて
grace:(仕事・債務返済などの)猶予(期間)
jeopardy:(損失・危害・失敗などの)危険, 危機(risk)

Spain will have two problems of its own to deal with next year. The country's minority government will have difficulty pushing through legislation, suggesting that it will make only modest economic and institutional reforms in 2018. Moreover, Catalan secessionism will remain a concern for Madrid as friction persists between the central and regional governments. Though Catalonia won't secede from Spain next year, questions about the region's future will linger. 

legislation:法律の制定, 立法.
secessionism:脱退論, 離脱[分離]主義.
Doubts lingered.:疑念がなかなか晴れないでいた.

イタリーはこの5月に選挙があるが、相変わらず不安定で、五つ星運動や左翼の動きが反EUでも、ユーロからの撤退は考えられない。また、国内の改革が連立政権が出来たとしても、さして進展はない。下手をすると、首相が決まらなければ、また選挙になるかもしれない。EUの懸念材料ではあるが、ギリシャはなんとか債権者との交渉で、満期返済の延長などで持ちこたえるだろう。もちろん、国内の改革を約束すればの話だが。スペインは政権が多数派ではないので、大した改革はできないし、カタロニアの独立運動の課題がくすぶっている。

水曜日。今日は海野塾があり、真田社長が上海から出席する。そのため、夜は銀座の寿司屋で盛大な懇親会をする。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

swingby_blog at 20:03コメント(0) 

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓