2018 Annual Forecast　(24)

2018年の予測 (24)

Brexit and Beyond 
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom will spend most of the year figuring out what its relationship with the European Union will look like after it leaves the bloc. Hoping to give companies and households more time to prepare for the Brexit, London and Brussels will negotiate a transitional arrangement as they work to settle a comprehensive trade agreement. Leaders likely will find it easier to approve the transitional agreement in 2018, buying themselves more time to haggle over the trickier aspects of the trade deal, including the movement of services and capital. The trade talks could last into 2019, but even if they wrap up sooner, the parties involved can't approve a deal until the United Kingdom has formally exited the European Union in March 2019.

trickier：〈物･事が〉巧妙な, 手の込んだ; 〈仕事などが〉扱いにくい, 微妙な.〈人などが〉狡猾な, ずるい, 油断のならない.


こんなにEUとの取引があるのにBrexitをすること自体が正気とは思えない。さんざんこのブログでも取り上げてきたし、本にも書いてきたが、その真意が未だに全く理解できない。

British Trade
In the United Kingdom, the negotiations will call into question its economic and territorial integrity. Political interests in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales will keep a close eye on the talks between London and Brussels, doing what they can to shape the negotiations and voicing their expectations to the British government. London has the ability to resist some of the demands made by Scotland and Wales while reaching compromises on others. But the situation in Northern Ireland will be more delicate. There, tension between unionists and nationalists could complicate the already thorny issues the Brexit has raised regarding the region's shared border with the Republic of Ireland. To avoid introducing controls along its border with Ireland, the United Kingdom may have to soften its stance on leaving the EU single market, where goods and people move freely. 

All told, 2018 will be a politically charged year for the United Kingdom, and not just because of the Brexit. The British government will encounter constant political challenges, both from the opposition and from within the ruling Conservative Party. Though the country may replace its prime minister, the Conservative Party will try to avoid early elections in which it could make a poor showing. 

All told：結局のところ
charged：熱気を帯びた, 緊張の高まった〈雰囲気･事態など〉

A Dilemma for Central and Eastern Europe
As the European Union wrestles with the existential questions before it, countries in Central and Eastern Europe will take different approaches to their own relationships with the bloc. Hungary and Poland, for instance, will fend off Brussels' attempts to interfere with their internal decision-making. Nationalist parties are positioned to perform well in Hungary's general elections in the second quarter of 2018, signaling continuity ahead in Budapest's Euroskeptic domestic and foreign policies. Poland's government likewise will continue to censure the European Union and maintain a tense relationship with Germany. All the while it will preserve its alliance with the United States, which underpins Warsaw's security strategy. 

fend off：〈攻撃など〉をかわす.
censure：〈権力者などが〉 ≪…のことで/…したとして≫ 〈人〉を非難[酷評]する
All the while ：その間ずっと［いつも］
underpins：支える

So far this tack has proved popular among Hungarian and Polish voters, but it is risky. Budapest and Warsaw rely on the European Union for money and protection. And although neither Hungary nor Poland is interested in exiting the bloc, their actions could result in their marginalization within it and the degradation of their influence over Continental affairs. 

degradation ：live in degradation 落ちぶれた生活をする.

By contrast, Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will pursue more balanced foreign policies. While they will use Central European cooperation as a means of promoting their agendas and defending their interests, they also will continue to collaborate with Western Europe. The motive behind their strategy is simple: Though these countries are skeptical of further integration into the European Union, they are also closely linked to the German economy. In addition, Austria and Slovakia belong to the eurozone. 

今年はBrexitの交渉の山場の年だ。先程の述べたが、そもそもイギリスがEUを脱退することの意味が全く理解できない。多分、イギリス人の多くもそう思っているだろう。今まで、国民投票までしてきたので、そのメンツにこだわっていることしか考えられない。もう一つの問題はアイルランドとの国境の問題があり、EUを撤退すると人の出入りが自由にならないので、そういったことをどうするかということもある。イギリスはそれだけでなく、国の以外で、いろいろな課題がある。首相も変わるだろうし。ハンガリーとポーランドはEUに批判的だが、撤退はしない。Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republicは積極的にEUに関わっていくだろう。

木曜日。ではまた明日。

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