2018年01月25日

2018年の予測 (25)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (25)

2018年の予測 (25)

An EU Foreign Policy Based on Free Trade
Amid a surge of protectionism around the globe that has clouded the future of international trade, the European Union will seek out new free trade agreements. Though the bloc signed a free trade deal with Japan in late 2017, the parties will have to separately negotiate the issue of investment protection in 2018. At the same time, the European Union will try to forge ahead in its talks with Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, India, Indonesia and the Common Market of the South, known as Mercosur. 

clouded:に暗い影を投じる.
forge:(急速に)ピッチを上げる[上げて進む](ahead)

Within these negotiations, issues like agriculture, investment protection and the flow of private data to third-party countries could become sticking points. The process of reaching final deals will be lengthy, likely lasting well beyond next year, but Brussels will stay committed to expanding its collection of trade deals. However, it will also keep looking for ways to better vet non-EU investors that seek to buy companies that are part of sensitive or strategic sectors in member states. 

sticking point:意見の食い違う点, 交渉を難航させる[問題を困難にする]原因.
vet:〈志願者・文書・計画など〉を(詳しく)調べる, 審査する.

In the meantime, the European Union's relationship with Russia will remain distant. Moscow will try to exploit (and at times, create) friction among the bloc's members with the tools at its disposal, including pipeline politics and propaganda. The European Union, for its part, will continue to argue that it will lift sanctions against Russia only if Moscow fully complies with the peace deal in Ukraine. Because the sanctions are already a point of contention in Europe, the bloc probably won't expand them, though it may prolong the punitive measures if conditions on the ground in Ukraine do not improve. Brussels will also denounce Moscow's attempts to interfere in European politics while searching for ways to counter Russian propaganda and cyberattacks. Its success on this front, however, will be only modest. 

at its disposal:の自由になる(ように)
contention:論争
on the ground:現場での

保守主義の動きが世界に出てきているが、EUは自由貿易を推進していく。域外の諸国との貿易協定を進めていく。その際に、EUを保護しなければならないような項目はたくさんあるが、時間をかけて交渉していく。ロシアに対しての制裁は継続するが、拡大はしない。またロシアからの介入に対しては気を配っていくが、大きな被害にはならない。

Europe will face a foreign policy challenge to the south as well. Next year, the European Union will study options for addressing immigration from Africa and the Middle East, in part by reforming its migration rules. The most controversial decision the bloc must make is whether to implement a mechanism to more proportionally distribute asylum seekers across the Continent — a move that, in the end, it is unlikely to make. 

Central and Eastern European Migration Routes
Meanwhile, the European Union will work with migrants' countries of origin to try to prevent people from leaving their homes in the first place and to disrupt human-trafficking organizations that funnel migrants into Europe. The number of people crossing into Italy from Libya fell in 2017, but the Continent's migration troubles aren't over. After all, Libya remains politically unstable, and it may not be able to consistently work with Europe to stem the flow of migrants across its borders as its internal turmoil persists. Moreover, migrants have begun using new departure points, such as Tunisia and Algeria, en route to Europe.

funnel:〈人・物〉をじょうご(のように狭い所)に通すように流す[注ぐ, 進める]
stem:〈へた・茎・花柄など〉を取り除く.44





















Against this backdrop, the European Union will be eager to preserve its migration deal with Turkey in hopes of blocking floods of people from entering its territory. To that end, Brussels will promise Ankara financial assistance and stronger trade ties, including an update to the existing customs union agreement between them. But if the Turkish government continues to crack down on the media and opposition at home, Europe will increase political and financial pressure against it, adding further strain to their migration agreement. 

アフリカや中東からの難民問題は依然として解決しない。リビアが混乱したままだし、最近はチュニジア、アルジェリアのルートもでてきた。また、トルコのジャーナリストへの取締が依然として続くのであれば、トルコとの難民の話し合いは財政支援も含めて、決着できないだろう。

金曜日。いよいよ今年第一冊目の本の最終化だ。今日は早稲田の白木先生の会合がある。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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