2018年の予測 (26)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (26)

2018年の予測 (26)

South Asia
Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region’s great population centers. India is the region’s dominant country, home to the world’s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.

Islam informs every aspect of his behavior.:イスラム教は彼の行動のすべてに影響を与えている
dominant:〈人・物などが〉(最も)有力な, 支配的な, 優勢な, 目立つ; 主要な
testament:証拠, 証明
militancy:(政治的・社会的変化等を目指して)力[圧力]を用いること; 好戦的なこと.

Section Highlights
The slow deterioration of the U.S.-Pakistani relationship over their differences in Afghanistan in 2018 will push Islamabad to develop stronger relationships with Iran and Russia, while Washington solidifies its partnership with New Delhi.
Negotiations to resolve the war in Afghanistan probably won't materialize next year as Pakistan continues its support for the Taliban -- and as the United States sends 6,000 more troops to the conflict.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's corruption trial will weaken the country's ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party and reinforce the military's political power.
Focusing on his bid for re-election in 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to refrain from introducing politically sensitive land and labor reforms next year.

refrain:I will refrain from comment(ing). コメントは差し控えたいと思います


The War in Afghanistan Drives the U.S. and Pakistan Apart
The United States and Pakistan are at a crossroads. The security partnership between the two countries — the most consequential foreign powers involved in the 16-year war in Afghanistan — took a turn for the worse this year. As the Taliban-led insurgency hammered away at the U.S.-backed Afghan military, President Donald Trump cautioned the Pakistani government to stop harboring the militants battling NATO forces in the longest-running U.S. war. 


The government in Islamabad, however, has too much at stake to heed Washington's warning. Projecting power into neighboring Afghanistan through the militant groups it supports is part of Pakistan's long-standing geopolitical strategy to try to maintain a sympathetic government in Kabul that will honor the border between their two states and resist India's advances. The politically powerful Pakistani military understands that the issue is a matter of national security. Consequently, Pakistan will continue its support for the Taliban, at the expense of its relationship with the United States.

at stake:〔名誉・評判などが〕危うくなって、危機にひんして[さらされて]
heed:〈忠告・警告など〉に注意を払う, …に耳を傾けて従う, …を傾聴する.


Even so, the countries will maintain their defense cooperation — however begrudgingly — in 2018. Washington probably will avoid taking action that would further strain its relationship with Pakistan, since it can't afford to increase its security burden in Afghanistan when the situation on the Korean Peninsula demands so much of its attention. But even if it defers punitive measures such as revoking Pakistan's non-NATO major ally status in 2018, the U.S. administration will continue to ramp up pressure on the South Asian country. Washington, for example, could sanction members of the Pakistani government and increase the pace of drone strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in northwestern Pakistan in an effort to destroy militant havens in the restive region. Already, the Trump administration has announced that it would cut aid to Pakistan by over one-third next year. 

revoking:〈免許・法律など〉を無効にする, 廃止する.
cut aid to Pakistan by over one-third next year.:ヘイリー米国連大使は2018年1月2日の国連本部での記者会見で、米政府が2億5500万ドル(約287億円)規模の「軍事支援」凍結に踏み切ると述べていた。トランプ氏は2018年1月1日、今年初となるツイッター投稿で「米国はおろかにも過去15年間、パキスタンに330億ドル(約3兆7000億円)以上を支援してきたが、パキスタンは米国をだましてばかりだ」と非難していた。

Pakistan will respond in kind. As its relationship with Washington cools, Islamabad will enhance its diplomatic and security outreach to Russia and Iran. The two regional powers, after all, share Pakistan's interest in supporting the Taliban as a way to counter NATO's influence, and that of transnational jihadist groups such as the Islamic State, in Afghanistan. Yet these partnerships can go only so far. Islamabad's prominent, if largely symbolic, role in the Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition will limit its ties to Tehran. Similarly, Moscow's relationship with India, its largest arms customer, will constrain the budding defense alliance between Russia and Pakistan. 

in kind:同じもので, 同じように〈応える・仕返しするなど〉



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