2018年01月28日

2018年の予測 (27)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (27)

2018年の予測 (27)


12Pakistan: Friends, Rivals and Others
Even without the mounting tension between the United States and Pakistan, though, conclusive peace talks in Afghanistan would be unlikely in 2018. The addition of 6,000 U.S. troops to the war-torn country, mostly in an advisory capacity, means that little will change on the battlefield. At most, the extra manpower will help achieve a more manageable stalemate between the Taliban and the Afghan military as the war drags on for a 17th year. 

stalemate:(議論などの)行き詰まり, 膠着状態(deadlock)

Pakistan: A Military With a Country 
Pakistan's military, meanwhile, will have more on its agenda in 2018 than the conflict in Afghanistan. Beyond its dominant role in Pakistan's foreign policy, the military also plays a powerful part in domestic affairs. Its plan to nudge militants into the political mainstream through the formation of a new political party, the Milli Muslim League, will get a boost next year in the run-up to national elections. Hafiz Saeed — the accused mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks recently freed from house arrest — has announced that the party will run in 2018 legislative elections. 

dominant:〈人・物などが〉(最も)有力な, 支配的な, 優勢な, 目立つ; 主要な
nudge:(注意を促すために)〈人・体の一部〉をそっと肘で突く[こづく]; (軽く)…を押す
get [receive] a boost:元気をもらう.
run-up:準備期間

Hafiz Muhammad Saeed: (born 1948)  a Pakistani Islamist militant, who is a co-founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the chief of Jama'at-ud-Da'wah (JuD), UN-designated terrorist organisations operating mainly from Pakistan. Saeed is an internationally designated terrorist even though he is influential in Pakistan among certain religious groups. In April 2012, the United States announced a bounty of $10 million on Saeed, for his alleged role in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks in which 164 civilians were killed including 6 American citizens, but there have been protests in Pakistan against the US bounty.

bounty:懸賞金

India considers Saeed as one of its most wanted terrorists because of his ties with Lashkar-e-Taiba and his alleged involvement in attacks in India such as the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, 2006 Mumbai train bombings and the 2001 Indian Parliament attack. Saeed is listed on the NIA Most Wanted list and India has banned his organisation as a terrorist organisation. The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Russia and Australia have also banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. Since 2008, various Indian ministers have demanded that Saeed be handed over but there is no extradition treaty between the two countries. Saeed states that he has no links with LeT and that India has no evidence proving its allegations.


Saeed, who plans to include the issue of Kashmir's secession from India in his campaign, will serve as another point of contention in Pakistan's relationship with the United States and in its rivalry with India. In addition, his rise as a candidate will reflect the resurgence of the religious right in Pakistani politics. The movement will have an unusually strong presence in the 2018 elections thanks to the vulnerability of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). 

contention:論争
resurgence:再起; 再燃; 再生, 復活 

As election season gets underway, the ruling party will face a leadership crisis. Ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, currently facing trial on corruption charges, may be sentenced to prison once the proceedings conclude, leaving competing factions of his party to vie to become the PML-N's candidate for prime minister. The power struggle and its probable outcome also stand to benefit the military. 

vie:競う, 張り合う(compete)

The likely victory of Sharif's brother, Shahbaz Sharif, in the succession battle would be a welcome development for the military, since he favors a more accommodating stance toward it than did his brother, its most vociferous critic. In the meantime, moreover, the strife in the PML-N will weaken Pakistan's most powerful party, giving the military even more clout in Pakistani politics. The boost will enable it to stand firm on its foreign policy, including Islamabad's continued support for the Taliban and enduring rivalry with India. Combined with the stronger Islamist component in Pakistan's politics, the emboldened military will further aggravate ties with Washington and New Delhi alike. 

accommodating:協力的な, 好意的な 
vociferous:大声で叫ぶ, どなる; 〈主張・議論などが〉声高な.
clout:(経済・政治における)勢力, 権威, 影響力.
emboldened:を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
aggravate:悪化させる

アメリカとパキスタンとの高まる緊張がなかったとしても、今年はアフガニスタンの平和的な話し合いはないだろう。アメリカが6000人の兵士を増派しても、何も変化はしないだろう。パキスタンの軍部は更に力を得て来ることにある。インドとアメリカが懸賞金をかけているHafiz Saeedが釈放され、政治に参加してくる。彼は2008年のムンバイのテロの首謀者だとみなされている。Nawaz Sharif元首相が汚職で公判中なので、その弟が立候補するだろう。彼は兄よりも軍部との関係は良い。パキスタン軍は更に、アメリカとインドとの関係を悪化させるだろう。

日曜日。今日はこれまで。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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