2018年01月28日

2018年の予測 (28)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (28)

2018年の予測 (28)

The India-China Rivalry Intensifies
Pakistan isn't the only foreign policy challenge concerning to India. The strategic rivalry between India and China threatened to give way to a military confrontation this year during a 73-day standoff over Bhutan's disputed Doklam plateau. Though both sides eventually stood down, the underlying problem will follow them into the next year. China's growing influence in South Asia — traditionally New Delhi's sphere of influence — has made India uneasy and has breathed new life into the border disputes between the two.

give way to:〈事〉に取って代わられる, 変化する.
stood down:警戒を解く
breathe new life into the Cabinet with:〜で内閣に新たな活気を与える

The desire to counter China's growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region will drive India to deepen its security partnership with the United States and Japan, which share the same ambition, in 2018. (Australia may join the effort, too, reviving the quadrilateral dialogue format.) At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration will maintain its economic diplomacy with the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to try to catch up with China on regional trade and investment. 

assertiveness:しっかり自己主張する, 積極的な; 断定的な; 独断的な.
catch up with:【仕事などの】遅れを取り戻す

Nevertheless, the competition for international influence between China and India will intensify in 2018. Both countries will move forward, albeit slowly, with infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka, including the Hambantota and Trincomalee ports, though domestic opposition could hamper the Sri Lankan government's efforts to help keep the ventures on track. Elsewhere in South Asia, however, Beijing seems to have the edge over New Delhi. 

Hambantota and Trincomalee ports:news Jan.16th 2018: In signing off around 70 per cent of the Hambantota Port holdings to a front company of the Chinese Government, as against the originally proposed 80 per cent, the Maithiri-Ranil leadership has done more than what predecessor President Mahinda Rajapaksa had done in his time. Whatever little might have been left open then have been sealed, and for good, and in China’s favour.
keep the meeting on track:ミーティングを順調に進める
This new model has the [an] edge over its rivals.:この新機種は競合相手に対して優位に立っている

Nepal, for instance, will continue courting Chinese investment through Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, now that the Left Alliance has secured a majority in Nepalese parliament. Bangladesh, likewise, will prioritize getting more of the $24 billion worth of infrastructure projects that China has proposed there underway in 2018, regardless of who wins next year's national elections. In an effort to narrow the gap with Beijing, New Delhi also has offered Bangladesh a $4.5 billion line of credit for infrastructure development. 

They have successfully courted support in America.:彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.

Back at home, the Indian prime minister and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will carry on with implementing the Goods and Service Tax, a sweeping tax reform that passed in 2017. The ambitious measure will likely be Modi's last major reform in 2018 as his administration turns its attention to elections the following year. To shore up his chances of winning a second term in office, Modi will put off politically sensitive land and labor reforms that could challenge his image as a populist candidate. 

shore up:補強する 支える
challenge:〈意見・考え方など〉について異議を唱える, …を疑問視する

His administration will focus instead on a $32 billion bank recapitalization program to reinvigorate private investment, along with its efforts to bring the the new tax scheme into effect. Ahead of the national vote in 2019, state elections this year in Karnataka will offer an idea of how well Modi's administration is faring in the face of its failure to create manufacturing jobs on a mass scale. Transforming India into a global manufacturing hub was a pillar of Modi's platform, and his inability so far to deliver on the promise is his greatest shortcoming as his first term in office winds down. 

recapitalization:〈企業など〉の)資本構造を変更する. 資本増強
reinvigorate:の活気を取り戻させる.
faring:How did you fare in high school? 高校では順調にやっていましたか.
winds down:活動などが徐々に終わりに向かう;

インドと中国の関係が逼迫している。インドはアメリカ、日本、オーストラリアを仲間に引き入れようとしている。中国は南アジアに地場を求めて進出してきていて、スリランカの港開発、バングラデッシュ、ネパールへの一帯一路の一環としての投資攻勢がある。インドもそれに対応しようとしているが、支援金額の桁が一桁少ない。モディは来年の選挙に向けて国内の地固めも忙しい。労働法改革は人気を落とすので、選挙前は行わない。今までの改革の成果はあまりでていないので、気が許せない。


月曜日。今日はいつもの仲間との会食がある。鳥徳だ。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと三日で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed 3 days later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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