2018年01月29日

2018年の予測 (29)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (29)

2018年の予測 (29)

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It’s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe’s earliest explorers — and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. 

study in:格好の例, 典型例
captured:〈人の心・注意など〉を引き付ける, とりこにする

Sub-Sahara:アフリカのうち、サハラ砂漠より南の地域。アフリカのうち北アフリカ以外。サブサハラ、サハラ以南のアフリカ。

And yet despite the region’s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges — transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption — that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.

endemic:固有の 特有の【特定の地域・集団に】よく見られる 

Section Highlights
Southern Africa will undergo a sweeping political transformation next year as South Africa, Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Angola try to move away from their long-entrenched leadership. Despite his health issues, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari could seek a second term in 2019, though he may have trouble holding his party together in an increasingly competitive political environment.

undergo:〈変化など〉を経る
entrenched:〈意志・習慣などが〉強固な, 変わることのない
his health issues:2017/08/19 - Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari returned from more than three months of sick leave in London to a nation agitated by a sluggish economy, re-emerging ethnic tensions and resurgent attacks by Islamist militants in the northeast. 

Stubbornly low energy prices will continue to constrain Nigeria's finances, but as other sources of economic pressure ease, the government may have the means to offer some concessions to militants in the oil-producing Niger Delta region.

concessions:譲歩

As the incipient Group of Five (G5) Sahel Force struggles to address persistent terrorist threats, the U.S. military will deploy armed drones over Niger as a new way to combat militancy in the vast, ungoverned lands of southern Libya and the Sahel.

incipient:始まりの; 〘医〙初期の

G5 Sahel: an institutional framework for coordination of regional cooperation in development policies and security matters in central Africa. It was formed on 16 February 2014 at a summit of five Sahel countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. It adopted a convention of establishment on 19 December 2014, and is permanently seated in Mauritania. The coordination is organised on different levels. The military aspect is coordinated by the respective countries' Chiefs of Staff. The purpose of G5 Sahel is to strengthen the bond between economic development and security,and together battle the threat of jihadist organisations operating in the region (AQIM, MUJWA, Al-Mourabitoun, Boko Haram).
Sahel:サハラ砂漠南縁部に広がる半乾燥地域である。主に西アフリカについて用いられるが、場合によりスーダンやアフリカの角の諸地域を含める事もある 
Group of Five: 《The 〜》主要5カ国◇米国・英国・ドイツ・フランス・日本 ここではこの意味ではない。

Southern Africa Grapples With Political Change
In 2018, key countries in Southern Africa will undergo leadership transitions — some for the first time in decades. Though the process will play out differently from country to country, each transfer of power is bound to bring change to domestic, regional and international politics. 

South African President Jacob Zuma is reckoning with the potential pitfalls of ceding control over his country's ruling African National Congress (ANC) party to a new leader. During the Dec. 16-20 party congress, the ANC selected Zuma's successor, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will set the political and economic course of the ANC — and, by extension, of South Africa — for the next several years. Ramaphosa, as the new party head, will also likely assume the presidency in Zuma's wake, either in 2019, when he is constitutionally mandated to hand off the office, or earlier, should he resign before then. 

pitfalls:〔地面に掘った〕落とし穴
assume:〈役割・責任・任務など〉を引き受ける(undertake)
wake:航跡, (船などが通った後の)波の跡  (物の)通った跡
hand off:〔ボールを見方に〕手渡す

In the run-up to the convention, Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the president's former wife, vied to take over the party presidency. Ramaphosa's victory signals a departure in the ANC from Zuma's pro-labor, ethnic Zulu faction, and its populist economic policies and growing reputation for graft and mismanagement. The change bodes well for South Africa's business climate, which has weathered dramatic ups and downs throughout Zuma's tenure. Ramaphosa, for instance, could help patch things up between South Africa's political leadership and the Finance Ministry, whose chief Zuma summarily fired earlier this year during a Cabinet reshuffle. 

convention:大会
bodes well for:にとって良い前兆である.
weathered: 〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける
patch things up with :〈人〉と仲直りする.
be summarily dismissed:即刻解雇される.

But in the meantime, the deputy president's rise through the party ranks promises to do little for South Africa's structural economic deficiencies, including high unemployment, a rigid labor market and collapsing education standards. The approaching elections in 2019 will compel the ANC to come together as a party and increase welfare in one form or another to shore up its support among South Africa's impoverished black majority, a crucial voting bloc. In addition, Ramaphosa's win could make for a bumpier transition as the next election draws near, should the new party leader decide to push for Zuma's dismissal from the presidency. 

shore up:補強する 支える
impoverished :非常に貧乏な
bumpier :行程・道のりがガタガタ揺れる; 〈人生が〉浮き沈みのある, 困難の多い

サブサハラは今年は大きく変化する年だ。テロ、人口の急増、貧困、腐敗。そうした課題を抱えている。テロに関してはBurkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Nigerの5各国のG5 Sahelが協力して行動をするだろう。そして、ジンバブエのムガベ、南アフリカのズマがそのポジションを降りる。南アフリカはラマンポーザがズマの元夫人を破って、大統領になるだろうが、改革が期待できる。

火曜日。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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