2018 Annual Forecast　(30)

2018年の予測 (30)

Meanwhile, just north of South Africa, Zimbabwe will continue its transition from long-standing President Robert Mugabe in the new year. The process, which got off to a messy start late this year with a military coup, will stabilize over the course of 2018 as the military and political elite rally behind Emmerson Mnangagwa's leadership. Nevertheless, Mnangagwa has a tough road ahead. The new president will have to strike a careful balance to undertake reforming Zimbabwe's broken political and financial systems while maintaining the patronage networks that underpin his rule. 


To try to resuscitate his country's moribund economy, Mnangagwa will seek financial and political support from China, Zimbabwe's main foreign investor, and from the West. The funding and recognition that Western financial and political institutions would afford his country probably will be too much for Mnangagwa to pass up, and Beijing won't mind much. The Chinese government, after all, has emphasized the need for stability in Zimbabwe, where increased attention from the West probably wouldn't threaten its core interests. 

resuscitate：を復活させる, 復興する.
pass up：〔招待を〕辞退する

As Zimbabwe plunges ahead into the next chapter of its history in 2018, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will stay right where this year left it. President Joseph Kabila, who has been in office since his father's assassination in 2001, has struggled to find an acceptable successor to lead his fractious political alliance. At the same time, a weak opposition and the international community's relative indifference have emboldened his administration to push off the transfer of power for the past two years. Kabila's alliance is poised to continue this strategy in 2018, maintaining its strong-arm tactics against the opposition while keeping up the appearance of cooperation. 

fractious：不安定な
emboldened：を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
poised：用意ができている

Although the government in Kinshasa has made strides toward improving voter registration throughout the country, it would have to overcome formidable financial and logistical challenges to hold the next general election as planned on Dec. 23, 2018. (The government chose that date only because the United States threatened to mobilize the international community to cut financial support were the vote delayed any longer.) 

formidable：〈問題･相手などが〉手強い, 手に負えそうにない, 難しい
mobilize：を結集する, 集める.

If Kabila doesn't find a suitable successor between now and then, he may resort to desperate measures to protect the fortune his family has acquired during his tenure. Whether he opts to postpone the election further — on the grounds that his administration obviously hasn't prepared to hold a vote — or holds a flawed election that would doubtless favor his alliance, Kabila could provoke backlash from other countries. But more important international crises elsewhere, coupled with fears of instability in and around the Democratic Republic of the Congo, will stay their hands should Kabila try to delay the election once more. 

stay their hands：自制する 〔相手を打とうとする〕自分の手を抑える
coupled with：と結びつく 

Compared with the stunted transition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola's move away from its own long-standing leader, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, will proceed apace in 2018. Dos Santos' successor, Joao Lourenco, already has begun to chip away at the former ruling family's financial empire since taking office earlier this year. In the coming year, he will continue and expand this campaign, appointing technocrats to key positions in the Angolan government to try to reinforce his authority. Lourenco also will pursue additional probes into the excesses of his predecessor's administration and may push for minor institutional reforms with help from important factions in the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola party. 

stunted：〈成長･発達など〉を妨げる, 阻害する; …の成長を妨げる.
chip away at：〜を少しずつ削り取る［かじり取る］、徐々に崩す

Zimbabweのムガベに変わって、Mnangagwaが大統領になりましたが、彼はムガベと同じ仲間なので、ここに書いてあるようにはならないでしょう。改革は無理でしょうね。コンゴ民主共和国のJoseph Kabilaも政権が長すぎるので、西欧から交代を迫られているのですが、身内に交代させることができる人材がいないので、困っているようです。アメリカが援助を削減しようとしてるので、その前に選挙をしたい意向がありますが、候補者が見つからない。アンゴラはJose Eduardo dos Santosの後継者にJoao Lourencoが決まったので、小規模の改革を行うでしょう。

水曜日。今日は海野塾があります。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトは今日が最後で明日から閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed tomorrow. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.